建信期货多晶硅日报-20250729

Report Date - The report is dated July 29, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The polysilicon market is in a state of loose balance between supply and demand, with no inventory reduction drive. The short - term price limit - down was mainly driven by policy - induced reversals, and recent price fluctuations are not closely related to fundamentals. The price has entered a wide - range oscillation range with strong support at the bottom due to spot prices and policy expectations [4] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Outlook - Market Performance: The main polysilicon contract hit the daily limit down. The PS2509 closed at 49,405 yuan/ton, down 5.84%. The trading volume was 581,460 lots, and the open interest was 136,295 lots, with a net decrease of 18,873 lots [4] - Future Outlook: The weekly output of polysilicon in the third week of July was 24,400 tons, a 4.01% week - on - week increase. The supply in July will reach 100,000 - 110,000 tons, expected to meet the downstream demand of 50 - 55GW. The downstream cell production schedule is also around 50GW. After the end of the rush - installation period, the domestic monthly terminal demand will drop to about 45GW. The spot price ranges from 45,000 to 49,000 yuan/ton [4] 2. Market News - On July 28, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts was 3,020 lots, unchanged from the previous trading day [5] - In June 2025, China's industrial silicon exports reached 68,300 tons, a 23% month - on - month surge and a 12% year - on - year increase, hitting an 18 - month high. Exports to Southeast Asia accounted for 58%, with Thailand and Malaysia as the main incremental markets [5] - As of the end of June, the cumulative installed power generation capacity in China was 3.65 billion kilowatts, a 18.7% year - on - year increase. The installed solar power generation capacity was 1.1 billion kilowatts, a 54.2% year - on - year increase. The cumulative photovoltaic installed capacity from January to June was 212.21GW, a 107.07% year - on - year increase, but the domestic installed capacity in June was only 14GW, showing a significant decline [5]