建信期货生猪日报-20250729

Group 1: Report Information - Report Type: Pig Daily Report [1] - Date: July 29, 2025 [2] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - Futures: On July 28, the main contract 2509 of live pigs opened lower, then rose and fell back, and closed down. The highest was 14,410 yuan/ton, the lowest was 13,995 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 14,125 yuan/ton, down 2.15% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index increased by 294 lots to 193,333 lots [9]. - Spot: On July 28, the average price of foreign ternary pigs nationwide was 14.03 yuan/kg, down 0.07 yuan/kg from the previous day [9]. Market Analysis - Demand: The utilization rate of pigsties is at a high level, and currently, secondary fattening is mainly on the sidelines. Due to the hot weather, terminal demand is weak, and the orders of slaughtering enterprises are average. With the increase in the number of pigs sold by enterprises at the end of the month, the operating rate and slaughter volume of slaughtering enterprises have slightly increased. On July 28, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 137,300 heads, an increase of 600 heads from the previous day and 2,200 heads from a week ago [10]. - Supply: According to Yongyi data, the planned slaughter volume of sample enterprises in July was 23.88 million heads, a month-on-month decrease of 1.19% compared with June. At the end of the month, the slaughter progress of the breeding side accelerated, the enthusiasm for slaughter increased, the slaughter weight decreased slightly, and the utilization rate of secondary fattening pigsties was relatively high. There are still secondary fattening pigs to be slaughtered in the future [10]. Market Outlook - In general, in late July, the slaughter volume of large-scale enterprises increased. In order to achieve the monthly slaughter target, breeding enterprises continued to increase the supply. At the same time, demand is in the off-season, and pig prices may continue to be under pressure. In the short term, the near-month futures contracts are following the decline of the spot market. In the medium and long term, the supply of live pigs will increase slightly, but the anti-involution initiative, high-quality development of the pig industry, and increasing environmental protection efforts in some regions are beneficial to the medium- and long-term performance of pig prices. The far-month contract 2601 is strongly supported by factors such as the expected weight reduction and the supply increase being less than the demand increase. Attention should be paid to the impact of future policies on production capacity [10]. Group 3: Industry News - As of July 24, the average profit per head of self-breeding and self-raising pigs was 162 yuan/head, a week-on-week increase of 51 yuan/head; the average profit per head of purchasing piglets for fattening was -63 yuan/head, a week-on-week increase of 63 yuan/head [11][13]. Group 4: Data Overview - The average market sales price of 15kg piglets in the week of July 24 was 542 yuan/head, the same as the previous week [20]. - As of the end of the second quarter of 2025, the national live pig inventory was 424.47 million heads, a year-on-year increase of 2.2% and a month-on-month increase of 7.16 million heads or 1.72%. From the second quarter of last year to the second quarter of this year, the month-on-month changes were 1.7%, 2.8%, 0.11%, -2.37%, and 1.72% respectively [20]. - As of the week of July 24, the average slaughter weight of live pigs nationwide was 128.48 kg, a decrease of 0.35 kg from the previous week, a month-on-month decrease of 0.27%, and an increase of 3.09 kg compared with the same period last year, a year-on-year increase of 2.46% [20].