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大越期货PTA、MEG早报-20250729
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-07-29 01:31
  1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PTA: After a significant increase, the domestic commodity atmosphere turned cold on the night of last Friday, and PTA futures followed the correction. The spot market negotiation atmosphere was relatively light, and the spot basis was weak. In August, some PTA plants are planned for maintenance, and the supply - demand outlook is expected to improve. It is predicted that the PTA price will fluctuate with the cost side in the short term, and the basis will fluctuate within a certain range [5]. - MEG: On Monday, the price of ethylene glycol fluctuated weakly, and the basis strengthened. The supply - demand of ethylene glycol is expected to turn to a tight balance in July - August. With the tightening of the supply side and a good macro - atmosphere, the price of ethylene glycol is expected to be relatively strong in the short term [6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review - No relevant content found 3.2 Daily Tips - PTA: The fundamentals showed a post - increase correction on the night of last Friday. The spot basis was weak, the factory inventory increased slightly, the 20 - day moving average was upward, and the main position was net long but decreasing. In August, some plants are planned for maintenance, and the supply - demand outlook is expected to improve. The price is expected to follow the cost side and the basis will fluctuate [5]. - MEG: The price fluctuated weakly on Monday, and the basis strengthened. The supply side has some unexpected situations, and the supply - demand is expected to turn to a tight balance in July - August. The price is expected to be relatively strong in the short term [6]. 3.3 Today's Focus - Influencing Factors: The supply side of ethylene glycol has many unexpected situations, such as device outages in Saudi Arabia, load reduction of a large - scale producer in Zhejiang, and planned maintenance of a cracking device in Lianyungang. On the demand side, the terminal demand is weakening due to the end of the rush - export period and the domestic off - season [7]. - Main Logic and Risk Points: The short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - side. Attention should be paid to the cost side, and the upward resistance of the market rebound needs to be monitored [8]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It shows the data of PTA production capacity, output, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and inventory from January 2024 to December 2025, reflecting the supply - demand situation and inventory changes over time [9]. - Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It presents the data of ethylene glycol's total operating rate, production, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and port inventory from January 2024 to December 2025, showing the supply - demand relationship and inventory trends [10]. - Price Data: It includes the price changes of various products such as naphtha, PX, PTA, MEG, polyester products, and their corresponding futures and basis on July 25 and July 28, 2025, as well as the processing fees and profits of PTA and MEG [11]. - Other Data: There are also data on bottle - chip spot prices, production gross margins, capacity utilization rates, inventory, and various price spreads (such as PTA basis, MEG inter - month spreads, spot spreads) from 2020 to 2025, which help to comprehensively understand the market situation [13][16][18]