大越期货沪铜早报-20250729

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The copper market has a neutral fundamental situation with stable manufacturing sentiment, a neutral basis, and mixed signals from inventory, price trends, and主力持仓. The copper price is expected to undergo a volatile adjustment due to factors such as the slowdown of the Fed's interest - rate cuts, rising inventory, geopolitical disturbances, and weak consumption during the off - season [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily View - Fundamentals: In June, the manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, unchanged from the previous month, indicating stable manufacturing sentiment. Smelting enterprises are reducing production, and the scrap copper policy has been relaxed. Overall, it is neutral [3]. - Basis: The spot price is 79100, with a basis of 100, showing a premium over the futures, which is neutral [3]. - Inventory: On July 28, copper inventory decreased by 1075 to 127400 tons, and the SHFE copper inventory decreased by 11133 tons to 74423 tons compared to last week, considered neutral [3]. - Price Trend: The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is moving downward, indicating a bearish trend [3]. - 主力持仓: The main net position is long, and the long position is increasing, suggesting a bullish trend [3]. - Expectation: With the slowdown of the Fed's interest - rate cuts, rising inventory, geopolitical disturbances, and weak consumption during the off - season, the copper price will experience a volatile adjustment [3]. Recent利多利空Analysis - 利多: No specific information provided - 利空: No specific information provided - Logic: Domestic policy easing and the escalation of the trade war [4] Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, it is in a tight balance [21]. - The Chinese annual supply - demand balance table shows different supply - demand situations from 2018 - 2024. For example, in 2024, production is 12060000 tons, imports are 3730000 tons, exports are 460000 tons, apparent consumption is 15340000 tons, actual consumption is 15230000 tons, and there is a surplus of 110000 tons [23]. Other Information - Inventory: The bonded - area inventory is rising from a low level [15]. - Processing Fees: Processing fees are declining [17]