大越期货天胶早报-20250729

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, with strong foreign spot prices and rising domestic inventories. The tire operating rate is at a high level. The market is mainly driven by sentiment, suggesting short - term trading [4]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include high downstream consumption, resistant spot prices, and domestic anti - involution; negative factors are increasing supply and the non - seasonal de - stocking in Qingdao [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - The fundamentals of natural rubber show that supply is increasing, foreign spot is strong, domestic inventories are rising, and tire operating rate is high, with a neutral outlook [4]. - The basis is 35 with a spot price of 15100, also neutral [4]. - The inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange has decreased week - on - week and year - on - year, while the inventory in Qingdao has decreased week - on - week but increased year - on - year, being neutral [4]. - The price is above the 20 - day line and the 20 - day line is upward, showing a bullish trend [4]. - The main positions are net short with an increase in short positions, indicating a bearish trend [4]. 3.2 Fundamental Data - Supply and Demand - Supply is increasing [4][6]. - Downstream consumption is high [6]. - Spot Price - The spot price of 2023 full - latex (non - deliverable) decreased on July 28 [8]. - The US dollar quotation in Qingdao Free Trade Zone is provided [11]. - Inventory - The exchange inventory has been continuously decreasing recently [14]. - The inventory in Qingdao has increased slightly recently [17]. - Import - The import volume has decreased seasonally [20]. - Downstream Consumption - Automobile production and sales have increased seasonally [23][26]. - Tire production has reached a new high in the same period [29]. - Tire industry exports have declined [32]. 3.3 Basis - The basis strengthened on July 28 [35]. 3.4 Multi - Empty Factors - Positive Factors - High downstream consumption [6]. - Resistant spot prices [6]. - Domestic anti - involution [6]. - Negative Factors - Increasing supply [6]. - Non - seasonal de - stocking in Qingdao [6].