Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - For螺纹: The demand shows no improvement, inventory is slightly decreasing at a low level, and traders' purchasing willingness remains weak. The downstream real - estate industry is in a downward cycle. With a positive basis, inventory situation and price on the 20 - day line, but a net - short position of the main contract (with short positions decreasing), it is expected to be in a high - level oscillation considering the weak real - estate market, cooling demand and domestic capacity - reduction plans [2]. - For热卷: Both supply and demand are weakening, inventory is decreasing, exports are blocked, and domestic policies may play a role. With a positive basis, inventory situation and price on the 20 - day line, but a net - short position of the main contract (with short positions decreasing), it is also expected to be in a high - level oscillation due to the weakening market supply - demand, blocked exports and domestic capacity - reduction plans [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 螺纹 - Fundamentals: Demand is poor, inventory is low and slightly decreasing, and the downstream real - estate industry is in a downward cycle [2]. - Basis: The spot price of螺纹 is 3400, and the basis is 152, which is positive [2]. - Inventory: The inventory in 35 major cities across the country is 372.97 million tons, increasing month - on - month and decreasing year - on - year, which is positive [2]. - Disk: The price is above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is upward, which is positive [2]. - Main Position: The main position of螺纹 is net - short, and short positions are decreasing, which is negative [2]. - Likely Factors: Low production and inventory, spot premium, and domestic capacity - reduction expectations are positive; the continued downward cycle of the downstream real - estate industry and weak terminal demand are negative [2][3]. 热卷 - Fundamentals: Both supply and demand are weakening, inventory is decreasing, and exports are blocked, with domestic policies potentially playing a role, being neutral [6]. - Basis: The spot price of热卷 is 3460, and the basis is 63, which is positive [6]. - Inventory: The inventory in 33 major cities across the country is 267.16 million tons, increasing month - on - month and decreasing year - on - year, which is positive [6]. - Disk: The price is above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is upward, which is positive [6]. - Main Position: The main position of热卷 is net - short, and short positions are decreasing, which is negative [6]. - Likely Factors: Fair demand, spot premium, and domestic capacity - reduction expectations are positive; the entry of downstream demand into the seasonal off - season and pessimistic expectations are negative [6][7][8].
大越期货螺卷早报-20250729
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-07-29 01:52