Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views Aluminum - Yesterday, the aluminum price declined slightly due to the cooling of market sentiment. The spot - end downstream procurement willingness was weak, and the market was in a state of expected inventory accumulation during the off - season. Considering potential factory复产, short - term prices are under pressure. The short - term operation range of the main contract is expected to be 20200 - 21000 yuan/ton [2]. Alumina - The supply of bauxite in Guinea is expected to tighten due to the rainy season, and the low inventory of alumina futures warehouse receipts supports a short - term price rebound. However, the subsequent high - capacity operation pattern is difficult to change, and the market remains slightly oversupplied. The short - term operation range of the main contract is expected to be 3000 - 3400 yuan/ton [2]. Aluminum Alloy - The aluminum alloy price followed the decline of the aluminum price. The market is in a pattern of weak supply and demand, with more prominent demand - side contradictions. It is expected to fluctuate weakly, and the main contract is expected to operate in the range of 19600 - 20400 yuan/ton [5]. Copper - Macroscopically, the market has a consensus on the subsequent interest - rate cut in the US, but the timing is uncertain. Domestically, the "anti - involution" policy may affect the copper smelting capacity. Fundamentally, copper is in a state of weak supply and demand in the short term. The short - term price is boosted by positive macro - sentiment, and the main contract is expected to operate in the range of 77000 - 80000 yuan/ton [7]. Zinc - The supply of zinc ore is expected to be loose, but the production growth rate of the global and domestic zinc mines in May and June fell short of expectations. The supply of refined zinc is expected to be loose, and the demand is weak. The zinc price has rebounded due to positive macro - policies, but the upward momentum is insufficient. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and the main contract is expected to operate in the range of 22000 - 23000 yuan/ton [10]. Tin - The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the demand is expected to be weak after the end of the photovoltaic rush - installation period. The tin price has fallen from a high level. It is recommended to wait and see, paying attention to macro - changes and inventory changes after the resumption of production in Myanmar [12]. Nickel - The macro - sentiment has turned bearish, and the supply of nickel ore has become relatively loose. The price of nickel iron is weakly stable, and the demand for stainless steel is weak. The short - term price is expected to adjust within a range, and the main contract is expected to operate in the range of 120000 - 128000 yuan/ton [13]. Stainless Steel - The stainless steel price fluctuated weakly. The supply of nickel ore is loose, and the price of nickel iron is weakly stable. The supply of stainless steel is under pressure, and the terminal demand is weak. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and the main contract is expected to operate in the range of 12600 - 13200 yuan/ton [15]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate price fluctuated sharply. The supply side has increased uncertainties, mainly around mine - related issues in Qinghai and Jiangxi. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is stable but not significantly boosted. The overall inventory is accumulating. It is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [17]. Summary by Directory Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price was 20660 yuan/ton, down 0.58% from the previous value; the import profit and loss was - 1665 yuan/ton, up 12.4 yuan/ton from the previous value [2]. Fundamental Data - In June, the alumina output was 725.81 million tons, down 0.19% month - on - month; the electrolytic aluminum output was 360.90 million tons, down 3.22% month - on - month [2]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price was 20100 yuan/ton, down 0.50% from the previous value [4]. Fundamental Data - In June, the output of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 61.50 million tons, up 1.49% month - on - month; the output of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 25.50 million tons, down 2.30% month - on - month [5]. Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price was 79075 yuan/ton, down 0.47% from the previous value; the refined - scrap price difference was 960 yuan/ton, up 14.17% from the previous value [7]. Fundamental Data - In June, the electrolytic copper output was 113.49 million tons, down 0.30% month - on - month; the import volume was 30.05 million tons, up 18.74% month - on - month [7]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price was 22650 yuan/ton, down 0.53% from the previous value; the import profit and loss was - 1711 yuan/ton, down 123.74 yuan/ton from the previous value [10]. Fundamental Data - In June, the refined zinc output was 58.51 million tons, up 6.50% month - on - month; the import volume was 3.61 million tons, up 34.97% month - on - month [10]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price was 268800 yuan/ton, down 0.85% from the previous value; the LME 0 - 3 premium was 65.00 US dollars/ton, down 55.17% from the previous value [12]. Fundamental Data - In June, the tin ore import volume was 11911 tons, down 11.44% from the previous value; the SMM refined tin output was 13810 tons, down 6.94% from the previous value [12]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price was 123200 yuan/ton, down 1.16% from the previous value; the 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron price was 912 yuan/nickel point, up 0.22% from the previous value [13]. Supply and Inventory - The output of Chinese refined nickel products was 31800 tons, down 10.04% month - on - month; the import volume was 19157 tons, up 116.90% month - on - month [13]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 roll) was 12900 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous value; the price of 304/2B (Foshan Hongwang 2.0 roll) was 12850 yuan/ton, down 0.77% from the previous value [15]. Fundamental Data - In June, the output of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel in China (43 companies) was 171.33 million tons, down 3.83% month - on - month; the import volume was 10.95 million tons, down 12.48% month - on - month [15]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price was 73900 yuan/ton, up 1.37% from the previous value; the lithium spodumene concentrate CIF average price was 805 US dollars/ton, down 0.62% from the previous value [17]. Fundamental Data - In June, the lithium carbonate output was 78090 tons, up 8.34% month - on - month; the demand was 93815 tons, down 0.15% month - on - month [17].
广发期货《有色》日报-20250729
Guang Fa Qi Huo·2025-07-29 02:16