Report on Industrial Silicon 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The main contract of industrial silicon opened low, fluctuated lower, and hit the daily limit in the afternoon. It was pressured by the limit - down of coking coal futures and the inventory - building pressure due to weakening demand. Although the output of industrial silicon increased slightly month - on - month, the demand for silicone was expected to decline by about 3% due to a fire at a large - scale silicone enterprise. However, the increase in polysilicon output could offset the decline in silicone demand. After the sharp rise in industrial silicon futures last week, the arbitrage window opened, and the number of warehouse receipts increased. The short - term market cooled after the exchange announced risk prevention measures. If holding short positions, hold them cautiously. For the 09 contract with a large open interest, manage positions and risks well. Also, pay attention to the impact of environmental inspections on industrial silicon production [1]. 3. Summary by Directory Spot Price and Basis - The price of East China oxygen - permeable S15530 industrial silicon decreased by 1.49% from July 25th to July 28th, and its basis increased by 176.00%. - The price of East China SI4210 industrial silicon decreased by 1.45%, and its basis increased by 377.14%. - The price of Xinjiang 99 - silicon decreased by 1.59%, and its basis increased by 125.71% [1]. Inter - month Spread - The spread of 2508 - 2509 increased by 22.22%, while the spreads of 2509 - 2510, 2510 - 2511 decreased by 30.77% and 27.27% respectively [1]. Fundamental Data (Monthly) - National industrial silicon output decreased by 12.10%, Xinjiang's output decreased by 20.55%, Yunnan's output increased by 9.35%, and Sichuan's output increased by 145.65%. - The production of recycled aluminum alloy increased by 1.49%, and the export volume of industrial silicon increased by 1.64% [1]. Inventory Changes - Yunnan's factory - warehouse inventory increased by 6.23%, Sichuan's decreased by 3.70%, and the social inventory decreased by 2.19%. The warehouse - receipt inventory increased by 0.81%, and the non - warehouse - receipt inventory decreased by 4.70% [1]. Report on Polysilicon 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The main contract of polysilicon opened low, fluctuated higher, then followed the market sentiment and hit the daily limit. It rebounded at the end of the session, possibly due to the market's expectation of positive news from the silicon material integration meeting. After the sharp rise in polysilicon futures last week, the arbitrage window opened, and the upstream enterprises' hedging enthusiasm increased. The number of warehouse receipts is expected to continue to increase. From the supply - demand perspective, the weekly output of polysilicon increased by 10% to 2.55 million tons, and the future output center will move up. The demand side is still weak. With the increase in warehouse receipts at high prices with short - term supply increase and demand decrease, the price is expected to return to the cost range of 45,000 - 50,000 yuan/ton. Hold short positions cautiously and pay attention to risk management. Also, pay attention to the impact of anti - involution policies on production capacity and output [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Spot Price and Basis - The average prices of N - type re -投料 and N - type granular silicon remained unchanged. The N - type material basis increased by 35.80%. - The average prices of N - type silicon wafers, single - crystal Topcon battery cells, and some components increased slightly [3]. Futures Price and Inter - month Spread - The price of PS2506 decreased by 3.17%. The spreads of PS2506 - PS2507, PS2509 - PS2510, and PS2511 - PS2512 increased, while others decreased [3]. Fundamental Data - Weekly: The output of silicon wafers increased by 0.90%, and the output of polysilicon increased by 10.87%. - Monthly: The output of polysilicon increased by 5.10%, the import volume of polysilicon increased by 16.59%, the export volume increased by 5.96%, the output of silicon wafers increased by 1.34%, the import volume decreased by 15.41%, the export volume increased by 11.37%, and the net export volume increased by 15.56%. The demand for silicon wafers decreased by 6.73% [3]. Inventory Changes - The polysilicon inventory decreased by 2.41%, and the silicon wafer inventory increased by 11.55%. The number of polysilicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged [3]. Report on Natural Rubber 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The market sentiment weakened, and the rubber price fell from a high level. One can try to short with a light position. Pay attention to the increase in raw material supply after the weather improves in the main producing areas. The supply was affected by continuous rainfall in Southeast Asia, which hindered rubber tapping and kept raw material prices strong. The demand was restricted by the rainy season, and most channel merchants were digesting inventory. Towards the end of the month, the enthusiasm for purchasing may increase, but it has limited impact on the overall market [5]. 3. Summary by Directory Spot Price and Basis - The price of Yunnan state - owned whole - milk rubber decreased by 1.63%, and its basis increased by 114.89%. - The price of Thai standard mixed rubber decreased by 2.65%, and the non - standard price spread increased by 24.74%. - The prices of cup rubber and glue in the international market dropped to zero [5]. Inter - month Spread - The spread of 9 - 1 decreased by 1.96%, and the spread of 5 - 9 increased by 1.69% [5]. Fundamental Data - The production of Thailand, Indonesia, and India in May increased, with Thailand's production increasing by 157.52%. - The domestic tire output in June increased by 0.74%, and the tire export volume decreased by 2.44%. - The import volume of natural rubber in June increased by 2.21%, and the import of natural and synthetic rubber decreased by 1.64% [5]. Inventory Changes - The bonded area inventory decreased by 0.28%, and the natural rubber factory - warehouse futures inventory in the SHFE increased by 1.93% [5]. Report on Logs 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View Recently, log futures have been fluctuating repeatedly due to weak demand. Last week, the inventory decreased due to reduced arrivals and slightly improved demand. This week, the arrival and unloading of ships are expected to increase, and the demand in the log spot market remains under pressure. The market generally corrected on Monday, and the market will adjust in the short - term. Pay attention to market sentiment changes and policy expectations [6]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures and Spot Prices - The price of the 2509 log contract increased by 0.12%. The prices of some spot logs in Rizhao Port and Taicang Port remained unchanged, and the new round of foreign quotation remained at 114 US dollars per JAS cubic meter [6]. Supply - The port shipping volume from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea increased by 2.12%. The number of ships decreased by 8.62%. The national coniferous log inventory decreased by 120,000 cubic meters to 3.17 million cubic meters as of July 25th [6]. Demand - The daily average unloading volume of logs increased by 0.17 million cubic meters to 6.41 million cubic meters as of July 25th [6]. Report on Glass and Soda Ash 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View Soda Ash The market sentiment changed after the daily limit down yesterday. The previous sharp rise was driven by coal production reduction news and relevant policies. The market expected the elimination of backward production capacity. Although the spot sales improved and inventory decreased in the past two weeks, soda ash still faced an obvious oversupply situation in the medium - term. After the second - quarter photovoltaic installation rush, the growth of photovoltaic glass production capacity slowed down, and the float glass production capacity was flat with pressure in the second half of the year. There may be further cold - repair expectations. If there is no actual production capacity exit or load reduction, the inventory will face more pressure. Track policy implementation and upstream alkali plant load adjustment. The short - term market fluctuated sharply due to policy and news, and today's limit - down returned to the fundamental logic. Manage risks well [7]. Glass The market sentiment changed after the daily limit down yesterday. The previous sharp rise was driven by news of coal production reduction, relevant policies, and a document on air pollution prevention in the glass industry. The market expected the elimination of backward production capacity. The spot market was boosted by the futures market, with many regions having a sales - to - production ratio over 100% and spot prices rising. However, currently in the summer rainy season, the deep - processing orders are weak, and the low - e glass production rate is low. In the long - term, the real estate cycle is at the bottom, and the industry needs to eliminate excess production capacity. Track the implementation of regional policies. The current market is mainly driven by sentiment, with sharp fluctuations. Manage risks well [7]. 3. Summary by Directory Glass - related Prices and Spreads - The prices of glass in North China, East China, Central China, and South China increased to varying degrees. The prices of glass 2505 and 2509 also increased, with the 2509 contract increasing by 4.21%. - The 05 basis decreased by 7.49% [7]. Soda Ash - related Prices and Spreads - The prices of soda ash in North China and Central China increased, with North China increasing by 3.70%. - The prices of soda ash 2505 and 2509 increased, and the 05 basis increased by 17.26% [7]. Supply - The soda ash operating rate decreased by 1.28%, and the weekly production decreased by 1.28%. - The float glass daily melting volume increased by 0.76%, and the photovoltaic glass daily melting volume decreased by 1.47% [7]. Inventory - The glass factory inventory decreased by 4.70%, the soda ash factory inventory decreased by 2.15%, and the soda ash delivery warehouse inventory increased by 21.86% [7]. Real Estate Data - The new construction area increased by 0.09%, the construction area decreased by 2.43%, the completion area decreased by 0.03%, and the sales area decreased by 6.50% [7].
《特殊商品》日报-20250729
Guang Fa Qi Huo·2025-07-29 02:13