建信期货铜期货日报-20250729

Report Information - Report Title: Copper Futures Daily Report [2] - Date: July 29, 2025 [3] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [4] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - Copper futures weakened, with Shanghai copper breaking below the trend - line due to the strengthening of the US dollar index and the increase in selling after the anti - involution sentiment faded. However, there is strong support below. The Shanghai copper main contract closed above 79,000 at the end of the session, and the near - month structure changed from contango to flat. It is expected that copper prices will face correction pressure, but there are still fundamental support factors, and the correction is a buying opportunity [12] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Copper futures weakened, Shanghai copper broke below the trend - line. The main reasons were the strengthening of the US dollar index and increased selling after the anti - involution sentiment faded. The Shanghai copper main contract closed above 79,000 at the end of the session, and the near - month structure changed from contango to flat. The spot price dropped by 375 to 79,075, and the premium dropped by 30 to 95. At the end of the month, holders had a strong selling sentiment, and social inventories increased by 0.61 to 120,300 tons over the weekend. The increase in domestic arrivals this week may add pressure on inventory accumulation. LME0 - 3 was - 53.68, and LME was still affected by the US tariff on copper on August 1. The COMEX - LME premium reached 2927 and did not widen during the session. Market caution increased before the expected deadline, and with the Fed's interest - rate meeting this week and the expiration of Trump's 90 - day suspension of reciprocal tariffs on August 1, market uncertainty increased. It is expected that copper prices will have correction pressure, but the fundamentals still provide support, and the correction is a buying opportunity [12] 3.2 Industry News - Trump revealed on Friday that more agreements are expected to be reached before the August 1 tariff deadline. European Commission President von der Leyen said she would meet with Trump in Scotland on Sunday to discuss trade matters. The easing of tariff sentiment is expected to support copper prices [13] - In July 2025, Jiangxi Copper Group's first overseas wholly - owned factory, Jiangxi Copper (Zambia) Optoelectronics Co., Ltd.'s wire and cable project, was officially fully put into production in the Jiangxi Industrial Park in Zambia. The first - phase project invested $11 million, focusing on the production of high - quality low - voltage wire and cable and oxygen - free copper rods, with a core production capacity of 40,000 kilometers of wire and cable and 10,000 tons of oxygen - free copper rods per year [13] - The president of the Japan Mining Industry Association (JMIA) said that Japanese copper smelters had a difficult mid - year negotiation with Antofagasta because they could not accept the extremely low conditions reached by Chinese smelters and Antofagasta. Japanese smelters are currently in mid - year negotiations to maintain a higher profit margin than their Chinese counterparts, but the negotiations are progressing very difficultly as Antofagasta proposed a processing fee lower than the 2025 annual level [13][14]