大越期货甲醇早报-20250729

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The report anticipates that methanol prices will mainly fluctuate this week, with MA2509 expected to trade in the range of 2390 - 2500 yuan/ton. The port methanol market may experience inventory accumulation, potentially limiting price increases, while the inland market is expected to remain stable with a slight upward trend [4]. Summaries by Directory 1. Daily Tips - The fundamentals of methanol 2509 show a neutral situation. The port market may see inventory build - up due to delayed imports, while the inland market is in a state of low supply and demand. The base price in Jiangsu indicates a premium for spot over futures. As of July 24, 2025, port inventories decreased, and the price is above the 20 - day moving average, but the main positions are net short with an increase in short positions [4]. 2. Bullish and Bearish Concerns - Bullish factors: Some domestic plants such as Yulin Kaiyue and Xinjiang Xinya have stopped production, Iranian methanol production has decreased, port inventories are at a low level, new acetic acid plants have been put into operation, and there is a continuous expectation of external procurement from CTO plants in the northwest [6]. - Bearish factors: Some previously shut - down domestic plants like Inner Mongolia Donghua have resumed production, there is an expected concentration of vessel arrivals at ports in the second half of the month, formaldehyde has entered the traditional off - season, MTBE operating rates have declined significantly, coal - to - methanol has a certain profit margin and active sales, and there is inventory accumulation in some production areas [7]. 3. Fundamental Data - Price data: In the spot market, prices of some regions such as Fujian and Jiangsu have decreased, while prices in Hebei have increased. In the futures market, the closing price has decreased. The basis in Jiangsu has increased, and the import spread has also changed [8][9][11]. - Operating rate data: The national weighted average operating rate of methanol has decreased by 3.81% to 74.90%, with significant decreases in Shandong, Southwest, and Northwest regions [8]. - Inventory data: As of July 24, 2025, the total social inventory in East and South China ports was 58.71 tons, a decrease of 0.89 tons from the previous period. The overall available and tradable inventory in coastal areas decreased by 0.25 tons to 32.58 tons [4]. 4. Maintenance Status - Domestic plants: Many domestic methanol plants in regions such as Northwest, North, East, and Southwest are in a state of maintenance, including planned and unplanned maintenance, as well as production reduction and shutdown situations [55]. - Foreign plants: Some Iranian plants are in the process of restarting or have uncertain operating conditions, while most plants in other countries such as Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, and the United States are operating normally, with some undergoing planned maintenance [56]. - Olefin plants: Some domestic olefin plants are in normal operation, while some are in a state of maintenance or have uncertain restart times [57].