大越期货豆粕早报-20250729

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Views - Soybean Meal: The U.S. soybean market is affected by weather and Sino - U.S. tariff negotiations. In China, factors such as high soybean imports in July, efforts to reduce protein content in feed, and weak spot prices are influencing the market. The soybean meal M2509 is expected to trade in the range of 2940 - 3000 [8]. - Soybeans: The U.S. soybean market has a bottom - support due to weather uncertainties, but the upside is limited. In China, domestic soybeans are supported by cost - advantage over imports, yet the high import volume and expected domestic yield increase are suppressing the price. The soybean A2509 is expected to trade in the range of 4100 - 4200 [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Tips - Not provided in the given content. 2. Recent News - Sino - U.S. tariff negotiation progress is short - term positive for U.S. soybeans. U.S. soybean planting weather is currently good, leading to a short - term rise and fall in the U.S. market, with further guidance awaited [12]. - China's soybean imports are high in July, oil - mill soybean meal inventory continues to rise, and the Ministry of Agriculture's push to reduce protein in feed has led to a rise and fall in soybean meal prices [12]. - China's pig - farming profit decline has led to low expectations for pig restocking, resulting in weakening soybean meal demand after May Day. However, supply tightness and reduced Sino - U.S. tariff pressure have put the soybean meal market in a short - term weak - oscillation pattern [12]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors Soybean Meal - Bullish: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low domestic oil - mill soybean meal inventory, and uncertain U.S. soybean - growing weather [13]. - Bearish: High July imports of domestic soybeans and expected high yields of South American soybeans [13]. Soybeans - Bullish: Cost of imported soybeans supports the domestic market, and expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports prices [14]. - Bearish: Expected high yields of Brazilian soybeans and expected increase in domestic soybean production [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - Soybean Meal and Soybean Prices: Data shows the trading prices and volumes of soybean meal and soybean futures and spot markets from July 18 - 28, 2025 [15][17]. - Soybean and Meal Warehouse Receipts: The number of warehouse receipts for soybeans and soybean meal from July 16 - 28, 2025, with changes compared to the previous day [19]. - Global and Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheets: Provide data on harvest area, inventory, production, consumption, etc., from 2015 - 2024 for the global market and 2015 - 2024 for the domestic market [30][31]. - Soybean Planting and Harvest Progress: Include the planting and harvest progress of soybeans in Argentina, the U.S., and Brazil from 2023 - 2025 [32][33][37]. - USDA Supply - Demand Reports: Show the data from USDA's monthly supply - demand reports from January - July 2025, including harvest area, yield, production, etc. [40]. 5. Position Data - Not provided in the given content.