工业硅期货早报-20250729

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the supply increased last week, demand was persistently low, and the market was affected by factors such as high inventories and weak cost - support during the flood season. It is expected to oscillate between 8735 - 9095 [6]. - For polysilicon, supply production scheduling continued to increase, demand showed some recovery but might be weak later, and cost support remained stable. It is expected to oscillate between 48190 - 50620 [9][11][12]. - The main logic is that capacity mismatch leads to strong supply and weak demand, and the downward trend is difficult to change. There are also factors like cost - upward support and manufacturers' shutdown and production - reduction plans [16]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Views Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week's supply was 78,000 tons, a 1.30% increase from the previous week [6]. - Demand: Last week's demand was 71,000 tons, a 4.05% decrease from the previous week, with continued low demand. Polysilicon, organic silicon, and aluminum alloy ingot inventories were at high levels [6]. - Cost: In Xinjiang, the production loss of sample oxygen - permeated 553 was 2,027 yuan/ton, and cost support weakened during the flood season [6]. - Basis: On July 28, the spot price of non - oxygen - permeated silicon in East China was 9,700 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was 785 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [6]. - Inventory: Social inventory was 535,000 tons, a 2.19% decrease; sample enterprise inventory was 177,500 tons, a 2.57% increase; and major port inventory was 120,000 tons, unchanged [6]. - Disk: MA20 was upward, and the futures price of the 09 contract closed above MA20 [6]. - Main Position: The main position was net short, with a decrease in short positions [6]. - Expectation: Supply production scheduling decreased and remained at a low level, demand recovery was at a low level, cost support increased slightly, and it is expected to oscillate between 8735 - 9095 [6]. Polysilicon - Supply: Last week's production was 25,500 tons, a 10.86% increase from the previous week, and the estimated production scheduling for July was 106,800 tons, a 5.74% increase from the previous month [9]. - Demand: Last week's silicon wafer production was 11.2GW, a 0.90% increase; battery cell and component production showed different trends in production and inventory changes. Overall, demand showed some recovery but might be weak later [10]. - Cost: The average cost of N - type polysilicon materials in the industry was 36,170 yuan/ton, and the production profit was 9,330 yuan/ton [10]. - Basis: On July 28, the price of N - type dense materials was 45,500 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was - 2905 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [13]. - Inventory: Weekly inventory was 243,000 tons, a 2.40% decrease, remaining at a high level compared to the same period in history [13]. - Disk: MA20 was upward, and the futures price of the 09 contract closed above MA20 [13]. - Main Position: The main position was net long, with a decrease in long positions [13]. - Expectation: It is expected to oscillate between 48190 - 50620 [12]. 2. Fundamental/Position Data Industrial Silicon - Price: Futures contract prices generally declined. For example, the 09 contract price decreased from 9,725 yuan/ton to 8,915 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.33%. Spot prices of different types of silicon also showed declines [19]. - Inventory: Social inventory decreased, sample enterprise inventory increased, and major port inventory remained unchanged [19]. - Basis: The basis of some contracts changed, with the 09 contract basis at 785 yuan/ton on July 28 [6]. Polysilicon - Price: Futures contract prices decreased, and prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components showed different changes. For example, the price of N - type 182mm silicon wafers increased by 4.55% [21]. - Inventory: Weekly inventory decreased, and domestic and European component inventories also decreased [21]. - Basis: The basis of the 09 contract was - 2905 yuan/ton on July 28 [21].