大越期货燃料油早报-20250729

Report Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall investment rating for the fuel oil industry [1][2][3] Core Viewpoints - The fuel oil market is expected to be neutral in terms of fundamentals, with a short - term outlook of strong performance. The FU2509 is expected to trade in the 2890 - 2930 range, and the LU2510 is expected to trade in the 3600 - 3640 range [3] Summary by Directory 1. Daily Hints - The fuel oil market's fundamentals are neutral, with the spot window stabilizing. High - sulfur fuel oil faces supply - surplus and weak demand in the utility sector. The basis shows that the spot price is higher than the futures price. The inventory decreased in the week of July 23. The price is below the 20 - day line, and the high - sulfur and low - sulfur main positions are mostly short. The market is expected to be strong in the short - term due to news of US sanctions on Russia [3] 2. Multi - Short Concerns - Likely to Rise: Summer power generation demand is expected to increase [3][4] - Likely to Fall: Demand optimism needs verification, and there is a possibility of relaxed sanctions on Russia [4] 3. Fundamental Data - Fundamentals: Market may be briefly weak, but the spot window is stable. August's arbitrage shipments from the West to Singapore are expected to decrease. High - sulfur fuel oil has supply surplus and weak utility demand in summer; neutral [3] - Basis: Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil is at 403.25 dollars/ton with a basis of 108 yuan/ton, and low - sulfur is at 506.5 dollars/ton with a basis of 172 yuan/ton. The spot price is higher than the futures price; bullish [3] - Inventory: Singapore's fuel oil inventory in the week of July 23 was 19.909 billion barrels, a decrease of 450,000 barrels; bullish [3] - Market Trend: The price is below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward; bearish [3] - Main Positions: High - sulfur main positions are short and increasing, low - sulfur main positions are short and decreasing; bearish [3] 5. Spread Data - The report does not provide specific content on spread data [2] Inventory Data - Singapore fuel oil inventory on July 23 was 19.909 billion barrels, a decrease of 450,000 barrels. The inventory has shown a downward trend recently [3][8]