大越期货碳酸锂期货早报-20250729

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand imbalance in the lithium carbonate market persists, with over - supply being a prominent issue. The downward trend is difficult to reverse due to capacity mismatch, resulting in a situation of strong supply and weak demand [8][11]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include manufacturers' plans for production cuts and a decline in the import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile and lithium spodumene. Negative factors are the continuous high supply from ore/salt lake sources with limited decline and the lack of willingness of power battery manufacturers to take delivery [9][10]. - It is expected that the demand will strengthen next month, and inventory may be reduced. The price of lithium carbonate 2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 71,720 - 74,520 [8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - Fundamentals: Last week, the production of lithium carbonate was 18,630 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.53%, higher than the historical average. The inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate decreased by 0.17% week - on - week, while that of ternary materials increased by 1.40%. The cost of externally purchased lithium spodumene concentrate decreased by 0.39% day - on - week, with a production profit of 1,459 yuan/ton. The cost of externally purchased lithium mica increased by 0.60% day - on - week, resulting in a loss of 6,730 yuan/ton. The production cost of the recycling end is close to that of the ore end, and the production enthusiasm is average. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt lake end is 31,745 yuan/ton, with sufficient profit margins and high production enthusiasm [8]. - Basis: On July 28, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,900 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was 780 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium, showing a bullish signal [8]. - Inventory: The overall inventory of lithium carbonate was 143,170 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.39%, higher than the historical average. The inventory of smelters decreased by 4.57% week - on - week, lower than the historical average, while the downstream inventory increased by 3.74%, higher than the historical average [8]. - Disk: The MA20 of the disk is upward, and the futures price of the 09 contract closed above the MA20, showing a bullish signal [8]. - Main Position: The net short position of the main players decreased, showing a bearish signal [8]. - Expectation: In June 2025, the production of lithium carbonate was 78,090 physical tons, and it is predicted that next month's production will be 81,150 physical tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.92%. The import volume in June was 17,698 physical tons, and it is predicted that next month's import volume will be 22,000 physical tons, a month - on - month increase of 24.31%. It is expected that the demand will strengthen next month, and inventory may be reduced. The price of 6% spodumene CIF decreased day - on - day, lower than the historical average, and the degree of over - supply has increased. The price of lithium carbonate 2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 71,720 - 74,520 [8]. 3.2 Fundamentals/Position Data - Supply - side Data: The weekly operating rate decreased by 0.80% to 62.2%. The daily production cost of lithium spodumene decreased by 0.40% to 71,376 yuan/ton, and the monthly processing cost decreased by 2.89% to 19,750 yuan/ton. The monthly production of lithium carbonate was 78,090 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.34%. The monthly import volume of lithium concentrate decreased by 17.25% to 427,626 tons, and the import volume from Australia decreased by 31.20% to 255,506 tons [17]. - Demand - side Data: The monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate increased by 3.70% to 56%, and the monthly production increased by 2.09% to 229,900 tons. The monthly production of lithium iron phosphate increased by 1.24% to 285,400 tons, and the monthly export increased by 115.75% to 2,031,541 kg. The monthly power battery loading volume increased by 1.93% to 58,200 GWh [17]. - Inventory Data: The total inventory of lithium carbonate was 143,170 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.39%. The inventory of smelters decreased by 4.57% to 55,385 tons, and the downstream inventory increased by 3.74% to 42,815 tons [17].