Report Overview - Report Date: July 29, 2025 - Report Author: Wang Mingwei from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department - Contact Information: 0575 - 85226759 - Report Type: Rapeseed Meal Morning Report 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Rapeseed meal RM2509 is expected to oscillate within the range of 2600 - 2660. Influenced by the low inventory of imported rapeseed and the tariff increase on Canadian oil residue cakes by China, the price rose and then fell. Driven by soybean meal, the price will return to range - bound oscillation in the short term [9]. - The spot market supply - tightness expectation has improved due to the peak season of domestic aquaculture and the listing of domestic rapeseed, while the demand side maintains a good expectation [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - Rapeseed meal oscillates and falls back, affected by soybean meal trends and technical consolidation. Low oil - mill开机 rates and low inventories support the market. The short - term demand for rapeseed meal spot is in the peak season. Although the arrival volume of imported rapeseed increases, the short - term inventory pressure of oil mills is not significant. The short - term market will maintain range - bound oscillation [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the peak season, and the listing of domestic rapeseed has improved the supply - tightness expectation in the spot market, while the demand side maintains a good expectation [11]. - The annual output of Canadian rapeseed has decreased slightly, supporting the overseas futures market. China has imposed additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes, and the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is still ongoing, with the future result uncertain [11]. - The global rapeseed output has decreased slightly this year, mainly due to the decrease in EU rapeseed output and the lower - than - expected output in Canada [11]. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues. The decrease in Ukrainian rapeseed output and the increase in Russian rapeseed output offset each other. There is still a possibility of an increase in global geopolitical conflicts, which supports commodities [11]. 3.3 Long and Short Concerns - Likely to be Bullish: China's additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes; low inventory pressure of oil - mill rapeseed meal [12]. - Likely to be Bearish: The listing of domestic rapeseed in June; the uncertainty of China's anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports and the seasonal off - peak demand for rapeseed meal [13]. - Current Main Logic: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [13]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Supply and Demand Balance Sheets: The report provides the supply - demand balance sheets of domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal from 2014 to 2023, including data such as harvest area, output, inventory, and consumption [25][26]. - Price and Transaction Data: From July 17th to July 28th, the trading average price of soybean meal fluctuated between 2929 - 2990 yuan/ton, and the trading volume fluctuated between 8.35 - 21.13 million tons. The trading average price of rapeseed meal fluctuated between 2580 - 2640 yuan/ton, and the trading volume fluctuated between 0 - 99 million tons [14]. - Inventory Data: Rapeseed meal inventory is 1.51 million tons, an increase of 228% week - on - week compared to last week's 0.46 million tons and a decrease of 58.06% year - on - year compared to 3.6 million tons in the same period last year [9]. - Import Data: The arrival volume of imported rapeseed in July was lower than expected, and the import cost fluctuated slightly [27]. 3.5 Position Data - The main short positions in rapeseed meal increased, and funds flowed out [9]. 3.6 Rapeseed Meal Views and Strategies - Viewpoint: Rapeseed meal RM2509 will oscillate within the range of 2600 - 2660. Influenced by the low inventory of imported rapeseed and the tariff increase on Canadian oil residue cakes by China, the price rose and then fell. Driven by soybean meal, the price will return to range - bound oscillation in the short term [9]. - Analysis of Influencing Factors: - Fundamentals: Low oil - mill开机 rates and low inventories support the market. The short - term demand for rapeseed meal spot is in the peak season. Although the arrival volume of imported rapeseed increases, the short - term inventory pressure of oil mills is not significant [9]. - Basis: The spot price is 2580 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 80, indicating a discount to the futures price [9]. - Inventory: The inventory of rapeseed meal is 1.51 million tons, an increase of 228% week - on - week and a decrease of 58.06% year - on - year [9]. - Market: The price is below the 20 - day moving average but moving upwards [9]. - Main Position: The main short positions increased, and funds flowed out [9].
大越期货菜粕早报-20250729
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-07-29 02:28