建信期货镍日报-20250729

Report Information - Report Title: Nickel Daily Report [1] - Date: July 29, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Nonferrous Metals Research Team [3] - Researchers: Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin [3] Report Highlights Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The fundamentals of nickel have not changed significantly. In the short term, the market is dominated by macro - logic. Although each link in the industrial chain has slightly recovered, the overall oversupply pattern is still significant. With high - priced varieties entering adjustment, nickel prices will follow suit. The nickel price is expected to be weak in the short term [7] Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - On the 28th, the main contract 2509 of Shanghai nickel closed down 1.5% at 121,620, and the total index positions decreased by 3,066 to 178,290 lots. After the macro - sentiment cooled down, the price fell and adjusted again [7] - The rainy season in the Philippines is about to end, and the subsequent shipping volume is expected to remain at a high level, with sufficient supply and room for the ore price to fall. In Indonesia, as the subsequent RKAB supplementary quotas are gradually approved, the nickel ore supply is also expected to become loose [7] - The cost of nickel - iron plants remains high. Although the ore price is expected to decline, the current decline is limited and still at a high level. Some production lines in Indonesia have switched to producing high - grade nickel matte, driving up the nickel - iron price, but the acceptance of high - priced nickel ore is still low [7] - The performance of stainless steel is still weak. It is in the traditional consumption off - season and the inventory is high, so it is difficult to effectively support the raw material end [7] - The price of battery - grade nickel sulfate continues to rise. The price is expected to continue to rise slightly due to the rigid restocking demand of precursors and the low inventory of nickel - salt plants [7] 2. Industry News - In 2025, the actual nickel ore production in Indonesia was only 120 million tons, while the approved RKAB quota from January to June was 364.1 million tons, about three times the actual production. The low utilization rate of the quota was mainly due to the rainy season in major mining areas. In the first half of the year, Indonesia imported 4.6 million tons of nickel ore from the Philippines. The cost pressure on the Indonesian nickel industry has been increasing due to policies and taxes. The APNI is formulating ESG regulations to enhance the international reputation of the Indonesian nickel industry [8][10] - Bulgaria officially launched the largest operating battery energy storage system in the EU, with a capacity of 124 MW/496.2 MWh. This is the first step towards the goal of deploying 10,000 MWh of battery energy storage capacity within a year [10] - A research team in Turkey developed a TOPCon solar cell using nickel contact with almost no silver, achieving almost the same efficiency as traditional silver - contact cells while significantly reducing silver usage, which is expected to reduce production costs [10] - Apatura obtained planning permission for a 100 - MW battery energy storage system project in Scotland. This is the tenth approved project in the past 17 months, with the total approved energy storage capacity exceeding 1.6 GW [10][11]