有色套利早报-20250729
Yong An Qi Huo·2025-07-29 02:30
- Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View - The report presents cross - market, cross - period, spot - futures and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for non - ferrous metals (copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, tin) on July 29, 2025, including domestic and LME prices, price ratios, spreads and theoretical spreads, as well as import/export profitability [1][3][4] 3. Summary by Directory Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - Copper: Spot domestic price is 79080, LME price is 9746, ratio is 8.13; March domestic price is 79010, LME price is 9801, ratio is 8.07; equilibrium ratio for spot import is 8.17, profit is - 615.05; spot export profit is 161.91 [1] - Zinc: Spot domestic price is 22650, LME price is 2819, ratio is 8.03; March domestic price is 22650, LME price is 2821, ratio is 6.00; equilibrium ratio for spot import is 8.65, profit is - 1744.32 [1] - Aluminum: Spot domestic price is 20660, LME price is 2627, ratio is 7.87; March domestic price is 20590, LME price is 2628, ratio is 7.85; equilibrium ratio for spot import is 8.51, profit is - 1702.22 [1] - Nickel: Spot domestic price is 121200, LME price is 15012, ratio is 8.07; equilibrium ratio for spot import is 8.25, profit is - 1995.62 [1] - Lead: Spot domestic price is 16750, LME price is 1992, ratio is 8.42; March domestic price is 16925, LME price is 2019, ratio is 11.24; equilibrium ratio for spot import is 8.85, profit is - 843.94 [3] Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - Copper: Sub - month - spot month spread is - 170, March - spot month spread is - 160, April - spot month spread is - 210, May - spot month spread is - 230; theoretical spreads are 498, 894, 1299, 1703 respectively [4] - Zinc: Sub - month - spot month spread is - 200, March - spot month spread is - 195, April - spot month spread is - 205, May - spot month spread is - 250; theoretical spreads are 217, 340, 464, 587 respectively [4] - Aluminum: Sub - month - spot month spread is - 160, March - spot month spread is - 185, April - spot month spread is - 240, May - spot month spread is - 295; theoretical spreads are 215, 331, 447, 563 respectively [4] - Lead: Sub - month - spot month spread is - 10, March - spot month spread is 0, April - spot month spread is 25, May - spot month spread is 50; theoretical spreads are 210, 315, 421, 527 respectively [4] - Nickel: Sub - month - spot month spread is - 2590, March - spot month spread is - 2430, April - spot month spread is - 2310, May - spot month spread is - 1980 [4] - Tin: 5 - 1 spread is 1030, theoretical spread is 5547 [4] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - Copper: Current month contract - spot spread is 125, sub - month contract - spot spread is - 45; theoretical spreads are 328 and 741 respectively [4] - Zinc: Current month contract - spot spread is 195, sub - month contract - spot spread is - 5; theoretical spreads are 139 and 271 respectively [4] - Lead: Current month contract - spot spread is 175, sub - month contract - spot spread is 165; theoretical spreads are 161 and 273 respectively [5] Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - Cross - variety ratios: Copper/zinc (Shanghai, three - continuous) is 3.49, copper/aluminum is 3.84, copper/lead is 4.67, aluminum/zinc is 0.91, aluminum/lead is 1.22, lead/zinc is 0.75; Copper/zinc (LME, three - continuous) is 3.48, copper/aluminum is 3.72, copper/lead is 4.86, aluminum/zinc is 0.93, aluminum/lead is 1.30, lead/zinc is 0.72 [5]