芳烃橡胶早报-20250729

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For PTA, the near - end TA start - up is stable, polyester load rises slightly, inventory accumulates, and basis weakens. TA will remain in a state of inventory accumulation, but the absolute inventory level is not high. Polyester start - up is expected to stabilize and has upward elasticity. Pay attention to the opportunity of short - term bargain - hunting positive spreads. PX is still in a de - stocking trend with a guaranteed valuation floor [3]. - For MEG, the near - end domestic coal - to - MEG start - up rises, overseas Saudi plants restart, and port inventory is expected to accumulate. In the short term, the port inventory is expected to remain low, and the far - end may accumulate inventory. It is expected to fluctuate widely, and attention should be paid to the satellite restart progress [3]. - For polyester staple fiber, the start - up increases slightly, production and sales improve slightly, and inventory decreases slightly. The demand side is still weak. The inventory pressure of staple fiber is acceptable, and the processing fee is in a low range. Pay attention to the subsequent start - up status of polyester yarn [3]. - For natural rubber and 20 - number rubber, the national explicit inventory is stable, and the Thai cup - rubber price rebounds. The strategy is to wait and see [3]. - For styrene, the domestic profit of styrene has certain fluctuations, and the profit of EPS has increased significantly [6]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs PTA - Price and Spread Changes: From July 22 to July 28, the price of PTA inner - market spot changed from 4775 to 4800, and the PTA processing difference changed from - 207 to - 46. The basis of daily average transaction is 2509(-8) [2]. - Market Situation: Near - end TA start - up is stable, polyester load rises slightly, inventory accumulates, basis weakens, and spot processing fee decreases again. PX domestic start - up decreases slightly, overseas load is stable, and PXN strengthens [3]. - Outlook: TA remains in a state of inventory accumulation, but the absolute inventory level is not high. Polyester start - up is expected to stabilize and has upward elasticity. Pay attention to the opportunity of short - term bargain - hunting positive spreads. PX is still in a de - stocking trend with a guaranteed valuation floor [3]. MEG - Price and Profit Changes: From July 22 to July 28, the MEG outer - market price changed from 525 to 528, and the MEG coal - to - profit changed from 687 to 684. The basis is around 09(+52) [3]. - Market Situation: Near - end domestic coal - to - MEG start - up rises, overseas Saudi plants restart, and port inventory is expected to accumulate. Downstream stocking levels rise, basis remains the same, and the benefit - comparison further expands [3]. - Outlook: In the short term, the port inventory is expected to remain low, and the far - end may accumulate inventory. It is expected to fluctuate widely, and attention should be paid to the satellite restart progress [3]. Polyester Staple Fiber - Price and Profit Changes: From July 22 to July 28, the price of 1.4D cotton - type staple fiber changed from 6640 to 6675, and the short - fiber profit changed from 37 to 47 [3]. - Market Situation: The start - up increases slightly, production and sales improve slightly, and inventory decreases slightly. The demand side is still weak, with stable start - up of polyester yarn, slightly increased raw - material stocking, and accumulated finished - product inventory [3]. - Outlook: The inventory pressure of staple fiber is acceptable, and the processing fee is in a low range. There is no obvious upward driver, and attention should be paid to the subsequent start - up status of polyester yarn [3]. Natural Rubber and 20 - number Rubber - Price Changes: From July 22 to July 28, the price of US - dollar Thai standard spot changed from 1800 to 1800, and the price of Shanghai full - latex changed from 14660 to 14665 [3]. - Market Situation: The national explicit inventory is stable, and the Thai cup - rubber price rebounds [3]. - Strategy: Wait and see [3]. Styrene - Price and Profit Changes: From July 22 to July 28, the price of styrene (CFR China) changed from 920 to 908, and the domestic profit of styrene was 24 on July 25 and 28. The profit of EPS increased from 150 to 285 [6]. - Market Situation: The prices of raw materials and downstream products have certain fluctuations, and the domestic profit of styrene has certain fluctuations, while the profit of EPS has increased significantly [6].