Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market shows structural differentiation, with the cyclical sectors cooling down and the non - cyclical sectors showing different performances. Different commodities have different trends and influencing factors, and the market is affected by both domestic and international news, policies, and market sentiment [2][3][8] - For different commodities, specific analysis and operation suggestions are provided based on their fundamentals, including supply, demand, and inventory [13][20][40] Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - Market Situation: On Monday, the A - share market showed a trend of opening higher, turning down, and then rising. The major indexes generally rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.12%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.44%, and the ChiNext Index up 0.96%. The non - bank sector rose, while the cyclical sectors such as coal and shipping fell. Most of the four major stock index futures contracts rose, and the basis of the main contracts showed seasonal repair [2][3] - News: In June, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 4.3% year - on - year, with a narrowing decline compared to May. The US and the EU reached a 15% tariff agreement, and the EU will increase investment in the US and purchase US military and energy products [3][4] - Funding: On July 28, the A - share trading volume decreased slightly, with a total turnover of 1.74 trillion. The central bank conducted 4958 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 3251 billion yuan [5] - Operation Suggestion: As the major indexes maintain an upward trend after breaking through the annual high, but approaching the interim report disclosure period, it is necessary to verify the substantial improvement of profits. It is recommended to gradually take profits on the long positions of IM futures and replace them with a small amount of short positions of MO put options with an exercise price of 6000 in the 08 contract to reduce the position [5] Treasury Bond Futures - Market Performance: Treasury bond futures closed up across the board, with the 30 - year main contract up 0.56%, the 10 - year main contract up 0.18%, the 5 - year main contract up 0.13%, and the 2 - year main contract up 0.04%. The yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market generally declined [6] - Funding: The central bank conducted 4958 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on July 28, with a net investment of 3251 billion yuan. The money market became looser at the end of the month [6][7] - Operation Suggestion: The central bank increased reverse repurchase investment, and the decline in commodity prices improved the bond market sentiment. However, the short - term market may still fluctuate. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, pay attention to the money market and incremental policies. The 10 - year Treasury bond has certain allocation value. The 2509 - 2512 contract spread may tend to rise in the short term [7] Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - Market Situation: The US and the EU announced a trade agreement, which boosted the US dollar index. Gold prices fell for four consecutive days, with international gold closing at $3314.78 per ounce, down 0.67%. International silver prices were flat at $38.14 per ounce [8][9] - News: The US Treasury plans to borrow $1.007 trillion in the third quarter, a significant increase compared to the April forecast. Trump expressed disappointment with Putin and threatened to impose "secondary sanctions" on Russia [8][9] - Market Outlook: Before August 1, more countries may reach trade agreements with the US, and the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in July is low, which will support the US dollar and suppress gold prices. Gold prices may test the support of the 60 - day moving average. Silver prices are driven by ETF funds, and it is recommended to buy on dips [9][10] Financial Derivatives - Container Shipping - European Routes - Spot Price: As of July 28, the prices of major shipping companies were in a certain range. The SCFIS European route index fell 3.5% month - on - month, and the US West route index fell 46.98% month - on - month [11] - Fundamentals: As of July 28, the global container shipping capacity increased by 7.9% year - on - year. The PMI data of the eurozone and the US in June showed the economic situation [11] - Market Logic: The futures market oscillated downward, and the main 10 - contract closed down 1.62%. The uncertainty of prices in August has decreased, and it is expected to show an oscillating trend in the future. Spot prices will not fluctuate significantly in the short term and are expected to decline slowly in the long term [12] - Operation Suggestion: It is expected to be weakly oscillating, and it is recommended to short the 08 and 10 contracts on rallies [12] Commodity Futures - Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - Spot: As of July 28, the average price of SMM electrolytic copper decreased, and downstream consumption willingness was low. High copper prices inhibited downstream procurement [13] - Macro: The domestic "anti - involution" policy affects copper from both demand and supply aspects, but there is a risk of macro - sentiment ebbing in the short term [13] - Supply: The supply of copper concentrates may be restricted, and the production of refined copper in June decreased slightly month - on - month but increased year - on - year. It is expected to increase in July [14] - Demand: The processing and terminal demand for copper showed a certain trend. The weekly operating rate of copper rod production decreased, but the terminal demand still had some resilience [15] - Inventory: COMEX, LME, and domestic social inventories all increased [16] - Market Logic: Macro - sentiment may ebb, and the copper market shows a short - term supply - demand double - weak situation. However, domestic policies and low inventories support copper prices. It is recommended to pay attention to the "anti - involution" policy and overseas tariff policies [17] - Operation Suggestion: The main contract is expected to oscillate between 78000 - 80000 [17] Alumina - Spot: On July 28, the spot prices of alumina in different regions remained unchanged [17] - Supply: In June, the production of metallurgical - grade alumina in China increased both month - on - month and year - on - year, and the operating capacity increased [18] - Inventory: As of July 24, the port inventory and the total registered volume of warehouse receipts increased [18] - Market Logic: The futures price fell due to the ebbing of market sentiment. Although the supply of bauxite in Guinea may be tight and the warehouse receipt inventory is low, the increase in production capacity will push up the supply. It is recommended to be cautiously bearish, with the main contract expected to operate between 3000 - 3400 [19] Aluminum - Spot: On July 28, the average price of SMM A00 aluminum decreased, and the premium decreased [19] - Supply: In June, the production of electrolytic aluminum decreased month - on - month, and the proportion of molten aluminum may decline in July. The operating capacity is expected to remain high [20] - Demand: Downstream industries are in the traditional off - season, and the operating rates of various industries are relatively stable or slightly decreased [20] - Inventory: The inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic main consumption areas increased, while the inventory in bonded areas decreased. The LME inventory increased [20][21] - Market Logic: The "anti - involution" policy sentiment cooled down, and aluminum prices decreased slightly. The supply is stable, the demand is weak, and the inventory may increase. It is expected to oscillate widely between 20200 - 21000 [21] Aluminum Alloy - Spot: On July 28, the average price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 decreased [21] - Supply: In June, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased, but it is expected to decline in July due to the off - season and other factors [22] - Demand: The demand in June was under pressure, and the market transaction was sluggish. The downstream maintains a low - inventory procurement strategy [22] - Inventory: The social inventory increased, and the inventory in some areas was close to full [22] - Market Logic: The price of aluminum alloy decreased slightly, and the market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with the demand side being more prominent. It is expected to oscillate weakly between 19600 - 20400 [23] Zinc - Spot: On July 28, the average price of SMM 0 zinc ingots decreased, and the spot transaction was not smooth [23] - Supply: The supply of zinc ore is expected to be loose, but the production growth rate in May and June was lower than expected. The production of refined zinc increased in June and is expected to continue to increase in July [24] - Demand: The operating rates of primary processing industries are differentiated. The galvanizing industry is relatively stable, while the die - casting and zinc oxide industries are in the off - season [25][26] - Inventory: The domestic social inventory increased, while the LME inventory decreased [26] - Market Logic: The supply is expected to be loose, the demand is weak, and the inventory may enter the accumulation cycle. It is expected to oscillate between 22000 - 23000 [27] Tin - Spot: On July 28, the price of SMM 1 tin decreased, and the market was in a "price but no market" situation [27] - Supply: In June, the import of tin ore and tin ingots decreased. The supply of tin ore is currently tight, but Myanmar's production is expected to resume in late August [28] - Demand and Inventory: The operating rate of the soldering tin industry decreased in June. The demand in the photovoltaic and electronics industries is weak. The LME and domestic inventories increased [28][29] - Market Logic: The market sentiment weakened, and tin prices fell from a high level. It is recommended to wait and see, paying attention to macro - changes and inventory changes after Myanmar's resumption of production [29] Nickel - Spot: As of July 28, the average price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel decreased [30] - Supply: The production of refined nickel is at a relatively high level and is expected to increase slightly in July [30] - Demand: The demand for electroplating and alloys is relatively stable, while the demand for stainless steel and nickel sulfate is weak [30] - Inventory: The overseas inventory is high, the domestic social inventory increased slightly, and the bonded area inventory remained stable [31] - Market Logic: The macro - sentiment turned weak, and the nickel market is affected by supply and demand and macro - factors. It is expected to adjust within the range of 120000 - 128000 [32] Stainless Steel - Spot: As of July 28, the prices of 304 cold - rolled stainless steel in Wuxi and Foshan showed different trends [33] - Raw Materials: The price of nickel ore is loose, and the price of nickel iron is weak and stable. The chromium iron market is stable [33] - Supply: The estimated production of stainless steel in July decreased month - on - month [34] - Inventory: The social inventory decreased slowly, and the warehouse receipt decreased [34] - Market Logic: The stainless steel price oscillated weakly. The macro - sentiment ebbed, the supply is under pressure, and the demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate between 12600 - 13200 [35] Lithium Carbonate - Spot: As of July 28, the spot prices of lithium salts increased, but the futures market limit - down, and the basis narrowed [35] - Supply: In June, the production of lithium carbonate increased, and it is expected to continue to increase in July. However, there are some supply disturbances [36] - Demand: The demand is relatively stable, with some differentiation among different manufacturers. The demand in July is expected to increase slightly [36] - Inventory: The whole - chain inventory is increasing, but the inventory growth rate slowed down last week [37] - Market Logic: The market is affected by macro - sentiment and news, and the trading core has shifted to the ore end. It is expected to oscillate widely. It is recommended to wait and see [38] Commodity Futures - Ferrous Metals Steel - Spot: Steel prices decreased, and the basis strengthened. The prices of billets, rebar, and hot - rolled coils all decreased [40] - Cost and Profit: The cost of coking coal and iron ore has different trends. The profit of steel mills has increased [40] - Supply: The production of molten iron remains high, and the production of steel has changed slightly. The production of rebar and hot - rolled coils has different trends [40] - Demand: The apparent consumption of five major steel products remains high, and the inventory is stable [41] - Inventory: The inventory of major steel products is at a low level and remains stable. The inventory of rebar decreased slightly, while the inventory of hot - rolled coils increased slightly [41] - Viewpoint: Affected by market sentiment, steel prices decreased. The supply and demand are basically balanced, and it is recommended to pay attention to the support levels of 3300 yuan for rebar and 3400 yuan for hot - rolled coils [41] Iron Ore - Spot: The prices of mainstream iron ore powders decreased [42] - Futures: As of July 24, the prices of iron ore futures decreased [42] - Basis: The cost of different iron ore warehouse receipts is different, and the basis of different varieties is also different [42] - Demand: The daily output of molten iron, blast furnace operating rate, and steel mill profitability are at a relatively high level [42] - Supply: The global shipment of iron ore increased, and the arrival volume at ports decreased [42] - Inventory: The port inventory increased slightly, the daily port clearance volume decreased, and the steel mill's imported ore inventory increased [44] - Viewpoint: The iron ore price oscillated downward. The supply and demand are relatively balanced, but the "anti - involution" speculation may end, and it is recommended to take profits on long positions and short on rallies [44] Coking Coal - Futures and Spot: The coking coal futures limit - down, and some spot prices began to fall. The market sentiment declined [45] - Supply: The resumption of coal mine production is slow, and the supply is still tight. The price of imported coking coal decreased [45][47] - Demand: The coking plant's production is stable, and the downstream demand for molten iron is high [46][47] - Inventory: The overall inventory is at a medium level, with the coal mine inventory decreasing and the downstream inventory increasing [46][47] - Viewpoint: The coking coal futures limit - down due to position - limit intervention. The supply and demand fundamentals are improving, but the previous increase has fully digested the positive factors. It is recommended to conduct hedging operations, be cautious about shorting on rallies, and conduct arbitrage operations [48] Coke - Futures and Spot: The coke futures limit - down, the factory price increased, and the port price decreased. The fourth - round price increase of some coke enterprises has partially landed [49][50] - Profit: The average profit per ton of coke is negative, but there are differences among different regions [49] - Supply: The production of coke is difficult to increase due to the slow resumption of coal mine production and enterprise losses [49][50] - Demand: The downstream demand for molten iron is high, providing support for coke [50] - Inventory: The inventory of coke enterprises and ports decreased, and the steel mill's inventory increased [50] - Viewpoint: The coke futures limit - down, and the spot price is expected to increase. It is recommended to be cautious about shorting on rallies and conduct arbitrage operations [50] Commodity Futures - Agricultural Products Meal - Spot Market: The price of soybean meal decreased in some regions, and the trading volume increased. The price of rapeseed meal decreased, and the trading volume was 100 tons [51] - Fundamentals: The US exported soybeans to Mexico, speculators reduced short positions in soybean meal futures, Argentina reduced export tariffs on agricultural products, and the EU's oilseed imports decreased [52] - Market Outlook: US soybeans oscillate at the bottom, and the new crop is expected to be a bumper harvest, suppressing the price. The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventory is increasing, and it is recommended to wait and see [52][53] Live Pigs - Spot Situation: The spot price of live pigs oscillated weakly, with different trends in different regions [54] - Market Data: The profit of self - breeding and self - raising sows and the profit of
广发早知道：汇总版-20250729
Guang Fa Qi Huo·2025-07-29 02:52