摩根士丹利：韩国和台湾经济

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive outlook for the South Korean economy, with a GDP growth forecast of 2.0% for 2024, followed by a slowdown to 1.1% in 2025, which is still above market consensus [1][2] Core Insights - The South Korean economy is expected to experience a mild recovery in the second quarter of 2025, with a quarter-on-quarter growth of 0.7% and a year-on-year growth of 0.8%, driven by consumer spending and strong technology exports, particularly in semiconductors [1][3] - The construction investment sector remains weak, with a year-on-year decline of approximately 9%, but the government’s supply-side reform plans are anticipated to support recovery in the next 2-3 years [1][4][6] - Exports are projected to perform steadily in the first half of 2025, with semiconductor exports increasing by 11%, while non-tech product exports are declining [1][10][11] - Inflation in South Korea is expected to remain moderate at 1.9% for 2025-2026, with overall price pressures likely to stay below the central bank's target of 2% [1][13] Economic Growth Projections - The South Korean government has initiated fiscal stimulus measures to support domestic activity, with GDP growth expected to be 1.1% in 2025 and 1.5% in 2026 [2] - The fiscal budget for 2026 is projected to reach 73 trillion KRW, equivalent to 35% of GDP, focusing on domestic welfare and labor market support [14][15] Consumer Spending and Investment - Private consumption is gradually recovering but has not fully bounced back from the low levels seen in the first quarter of 2025, with expectations for a more significant improvement in 2026 [5] - The construction sector continues to face challenges, with a 13% decline in construction investment in the first quarter of 2025, but the resolution of bad loans related to project financing may help stimulate activity [6][7] Export Performance - South Korea's export performance in the first half of 2025 is relatively robust, with a slight increase in actual export volume by 5-6% in the second quarter [9] - The European market shows strong demand for South Korean electric vehicles, with a growth rate exceeding 12% in the second quarter [12] Inflation and Monetary Policy - The inflation rate is expected to remain sticky due to service sector inflation and rising prices of processed foods, despite a slowdown in import prices [13] - The Bank of Korea is anticipated to lower interest rates in August 2025, as housing price issues have been addressed [16] Capital Market Reforms - Recent reforms in the capital market aim to address the imbalance between physical and financial assets, with a focus on increasing dividend payouts and encouraging retail investor participation [18][19][21]