美银：中国“反内卷” ，一场需要 3-5 年的结构性改革

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The "anti-involution" initiative is a structural reform aimed at addressing overcapacity in various sectors, with a focus on self-discipline and curbing low-price competition, expected to take 3-5 years to implement [1][19][30] - The current overcapacity issues differ from the 2015-16 reforms, as they now affect both "old economy" and "new economy" sectors, with more private companies involved and a tougher macroeconomic environment [2][21][30] - The report anticipates mixed impacts across sectors, with potential short-term pains due to supply rationalization leading to reduced investment and job losses [3][31] Summary by Sections Anti-involution as a Strategic Focus - Anti-involution is expected to be a key focus in China's next five-year plan, addressing historical overcapacity cycles and deflationary pressures [8][9] Comparison with 2015-16 Reforms - The 2015-16 reforms successfully reduced outdated capacity in traditional sectors, while current reforms face challenges due to the involvement of new economy sectors and a weaker macroeconomic backdrop [19][21] Sector Focus - Current overcapacity is more pronounced in new economy sectors such as solar and EV supply chains, which have received significant local government support [21][30] Demand Side Challenges - The macroeconomic environment is less favorable than in 2015-16, with weaker demand in exports and property sectors, which may hinder the effectiveness of supply-side measures [35][36] Policy Measures - Anti-involution includes measures to contain price wars, protect SMEs, and reduce local government subsidies, which may negatively impact leading firms in affected sectors [41][45] Sector-Specific Insights - Cement: Expected to cut capacity from 2.1 billion tons to 1.6 billion tons, with a gradual implementation timeline [68] - Steel: Anticipated 5% production cut, with private mills showing reluctance to reduce output due to improving margins [75][76] - Coal: The sector is unlikely to undergo significant cuts due to its critical role in energy security [86][89] - Battery: The market is experiencing rising capacity utilization, with a more consolidated landscape compared to other sectors [55][56] Conclusion - The report emphasizes that the anti-involution initiative is a long-term mission with complex challenges, requiring careful management of expectations and sector-specific strategies to navigate the evolving landscape [1][19][30]