集运早报-20250729

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Under the suppression of high capacity, as demand gradually enters the off - season, freight rates will face pressure in the future [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs EC Futures Contracts - EC2508 had a yesterday's trading price of 2183.2, a decline of 1.33%, a spread of 133.4, a trading volume of 2525, an open interest of 7369, and an open interest change of - 989 [1] - EC2510 had a trading price of 1502.8, a decline of 1.62%, a spread of 813.8, a trading volume of 56014, and an open interest change of 717 [1] - EC2512 had a trading price of 1737.8, an increase of 1.02%, a spread of 578.8, a trading volume of 1530, and an open interest change of 79 [1] - EC2602 had a trading price of 1541.0, an increase of 1.46%, a spread of 775.6, a trading volume of 2813, an open interest of 4456, and an open interest change of - 23 [1] - EC2604 had a trading price of 1370.0, an increase of 0.61%, a spread of 946.6, a trading volume of 2340, an open interest of 5242, and an open interest change of - 283 [1] - EC2606 had a trading price of 1493.6, a decline of 1.61%, a spread of 823.0, a trading volume of 323, an open interest of 832, and an open interest change of 44 [1] Month - to - Month Spreads - EC2508 - 2510 had a spread of 680.4 compared to 685.1 the previous day and 661.0 three days ago, a daily change of - 4.7, and a weekly change of - 21.3 [1] - EC2510 - 2512 had a spread of - 235.0 compared to - 192.7 the previous day and - 196.0 three days ago, a daily change of - 42.3, and a weekly change of - 74.3 [1] - EC2512 - 2602 had a spread of 196.8 compared to 201.4 the previous day and 217.6 three days ago, a daily change of - 4.6, and a weekly change of - 51.4 [1] Freight Rate Indexes - The Terdar index on July 28, 2025, was 2316.56, a decline of 3.50% from the previous period and 0.89% from two periods ago [1] - The SCFI (European Line) on July 25, 2025, was 2090 dollars/TEU, an increase of 0.53% from the previous period and a decline of 0.95% from two periods ago [1] - The CCFI (European Line) on July 25, 2025, was 1787.24, a decline of 0.90% from the previous period and an increase of 4.46% from two periods ago [1] - The NCFI on July 25, 2025, was 1422.9, a decline of 1.20% from the previous period and an increase of 0.35% from two periods ago [1] - The TCI on July 18, 2025, was 1054.56, a decline of 0.75% from the previous period and no change from two periods ago [1] European Line Supply and Demand - The average weekly capacity in August and September (tentatively) is 325,000 and 324,000 TEU respectively. The capacity in weeks 32, 33, 34, and 35 is 330,000, 305,000, 350,000, and 316,000 TEU respectively, with high capacity pressure, especially in the second half of August [1] - There is a situation of transfer from the US line in the European line schedule. Supported by the base cargo volume of shipping companies, the loading rate of shipping companies in late July had no significant pressure. In early August, the base cargo still provided some support, but the cargo volume declined marginally and gradually entered the off - season [1] Recent European Line Quotation - In July, the price remained stable at around 2400 points. In August, the PA Alliance dropped by 200 - 300 to 3100 US dollars, MSK's opening price dropped slightly (2900 - 3000 US dollars) and then rose slightly, and OA continued to use 3400 - 3500 US dollars. The price in week 31 landed at about 3300 US dollars (equivalent to 2300 points on the disk) [2] Related News - On July 28, the US - EU trade agreement may mean a long - term suspension of interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank. The risk balance may lean towards no interest rate cut at all [3] - On July 29, Israel is considering a full - scale military occupation of the Gaza Strip [3] - On July 29, the US State Department refused to hold a "two - state solution" meeting on the Gaza issue [3] - On July 29, German government will approve the 2026 budget with record - high investment [3]