原油成品油早报-20250729

Report Overview - The report is an early morning report on crude oil and refined oil, dated July 29, 2025, prepared by the energy and chemical team of the research center [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - This week, crude oil prices fluctuated. The monthly spreads of the three major crude oil markets declined, and the absolute prices dropped on Friday. The market is mainly focused on the progress of trade negotiations between the US and other countries. Fundamentally, global oil inventories decreased slightly, with US EIA commercial inventories and ARA and Singapore diesel inventories declining, while US and domestic diesel inventories increased. Refining margins globally declined slightly but remained high year-on-year. Domestic refinery operations were volatile, with Shandong refineries increasing production. Recently, refinery inventories of gasoline and diesel increased significantly, and refinery margins weakened. Although factors such as the peak demand season for crude oil, high diesel profits, and the US plan to impose secondary sanctions on Russia support the near - term supply and demand of crude oil, the peak - season factors have been largely realized, and the monthly spreads have started to decline. In the medium term, the absolute prices face downward pressure due to OPEC's accelerated production increase and the impact of US tariff policies on the global economy [7] Summary by Section 1. Price Data - From July 22 to July 28, 2025, WTI increased by $1.55 to $66.71, BRENT increased by $1.60 to $70.04, and DUBAI increased by $0.23 to $70.59. Other related products also showed various price changes, such as SC decreasing by 7.00 to 505.90, and Japanese naphtha - BRT decreasing by 13.76 [3] 2. Daily News - Trump warned Iran not to restart nuclear facilities, threatening new strikes if they do. Iran denies seeking nuclear weapons and will not abandon uranium - enrichment activities [3] - OPEC+ is considering another production increase and urging members to comply with quotas. Some countries are instructed to make additional cuts. They will hold a meeting on August 3 to discuss September's production levels, with a planned increase of 548,000 barrels per day [3] - India's crude oil imports in June dropped 4.7% month - on - month to 20.32 million tons, the lowest since February. Refinery throughput also decreased 4.2% month - on - month. The decline may be due to the monsoon season, and the trend may continue in July, but year - on - year imports are expected to rise [4] 3. Regional Fundamentals - In the week ending July 18, US crude oil exports increased by 337,000 barrels per day to 3.855 million barrels per day, domestic production decreased by 102,000 barrels to 13.273 million barrels per day, commercial crude inventories (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 3.169 million barrels to 419 million barrels (a 0.75% decline), and the strategic petroleum reserve decreased by 200,000 barrels to 402.5 million barrels (a 0.05% decline) [5] - This week, the operating rate of major refineries in China decreased by 0.26%, while that of Shandong local refineries increased by 1.17%. China's refinery output showed a decline in gasoline and an increase in diesel, with inventory changes of an increase in gasoline and a decrease in diesel. Both major refineries and local refineries saw a decline in comprehensive profits [6] 4. Weekly Viewpoints - The market is focused on US trade negotiations. Global oil inventories are slightly decreasing, and refining margins are high year - on - year. Domestic refinery operations are volatile, and refinery margins are weakening. The near - term supply and demand of crude oil are supported by peak - season factors, but these factors are largely realized, and the monthly spreads are declining. The absolute prices face downward pressure in the medium term [7]