广发期货《黑色》日报-20250729

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel - Affected by market sentiment, the steel futures market declined significantly, but the decline in spot prices was smaller than that in futures, leading to a stronger basis. The supply - demand of steel is basically balanced, and the market has returned to fundamental trading. In the short - term, with no prominent supply - demand contradictions, attention should be paid to the support levels of 3300 yuan/ton for rebar and 3400 yuan/ton for hot - rolled coils [1]. Iron Ore - The 09 contract of iron ore showed a volatile downward trend. The global iron ore shipments increased last week, and the subsequent average arrival volume is expected to rise slightly. The demand side remains strong with high - level iron - making water production. The port inventory increased slightly last week. In the future, iron - making water production will remain high in July, and the improvement in steel mill profits will support raw materials. However, iron ore is expected to show a weakening and volatile trend [3]. Coke - The coke futures market showed a weak limit - down trend, while the factory prices of spot coke increased, and the port trading prices decreased. The supply from coal mines has not recovered as expected, and the demand from downstream iron - making water has provided support. The overall inventory is at a medium level. The large - scale replenishment by downstream steel mills is conducive to the future price increase of coke [5]. Coking Coal - The coking coal futures market showed a limit - down trend across the board. The supply of coal mines is recovering slowly, and the demand from downstream coking and iron - making is strong. The overall inventory is at a medium level. The positive factors have been fully digested, and the upward trend has ended due to exchange intervention. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices generally declined. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China dropped from 3430 yuan/ton to 3390 yuan/ton, and the 05 contract of rebar decreased from 3418 yuan/ton to 3311 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - The cost of steel billets and slabs decreased, and the profit of hot - rolled coils and rebar in different regions increased to varying degrees. For instance, the profit of hot - rolled coils in East China increased by 48 yuan/ton to 333 yuan/ton [1]. Production - The daily average iron - making water production increased by 2.6 tons to 242.6 tons, a 1.1% increase. The production of five major steel products decreased slightly by 0.1%, with rebar production increasing by 1.4% and hot - rolled coil production decreasing by 1.1% [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products decreased slightly by 0.1%, the rebar inventory decreased by 0.9%, and the hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 0.7% [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume decreased by 13.6%, the apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 0.2%, the apparent demand for rebar decreased by 5.0%, and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils decreased by 2.6% [1]. Iron Ore Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of various iron ore powders decreased, and the 09 - contract basis of most powders increased. For example, the warehouse - receipt cost of PB powder decreased from 828.2 yuan/ton to 816.2 yuan/ton, and the 09 - contract basis of PB powder increased by 17.1% [3]. Spot Prices and Price Indexes - The spot prices of various iron ore powders at Rizhao Port decreased, and the price indexes such as the Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swap and the Platts 62% Fe also declined [3]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume decreased by 5.5% week - on - week, and the global shipments increased by 3.0% [3]. Demand - The daily average iron - making water production of 247 steel mills decreased slightly by 0.1%, the 45 - port daily average clearing volume decreased by 2.4%, and the national monthly production of pig iron and crude steel decreased by 3.0% and 3.9% respectively [3]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory increased slightly by 0.0%, the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 0.7%, and the inventory available days of 64 steel mills increased by 5.0% [3]. Coke Prices and Spreads - The prices of coke futures and some spot varieties decreased. For example, the 09 contract of coke decreased from 1763 yuan/ton to 1609 yuan/ton, and the price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port dropped from 1430 yuan/ton to 1400 yuan/ton [5]. Supply - The daily average production of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.6%, and the daily average production of 247 steel mills increased by 0.1% [5]. Demand - The iron - making water production of 247 steel mills decreased slightly by 0.1% [5]. Inventory - The total coke inventory decreased by 0.8%, the inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 8.5%, the inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 0.2%, and the port inventory decreased by 0.5% [5]. Supply - Demand Gap - The coke supply - demand gap increased by 10.2% [5]. Coking Coal Prices and Spreads - The prices of coking coal futures decreased, and the prices of some spot varieties increased. For example, the 09 contract of coking coal decreased from 1259 yuan/ton to 1101 yuan/ton, and the price of coking coal (Shanxi warehouse - receipt) increased from 1100 yuan/ton to 1150 yuan/ton [5]. Supply - The raw coal production decreased by 0.5%, and the clean coal production decreased by 0.3% [5]. Demand - The daily average production of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.6%, and the daily average production of 247 steel mills increased by 0.1% [5]. Inventory - The clean coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines decreased by 16.1%, the coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 6.1%, the coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 1.1%, and the port inventory decreased by 9.1% [5].