Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Views - The current demand for copper is temporarily weak due to the downstream off - season and weakened trans - shipment momentum, but the balance will be relatively tight after August. The annual apparent demand for copper is expected to be in the range of 4.8% - 5.5%. A short - term cautious but medium - to long - term bullish view on Shanghai copper is maintained, and virtual inventory can be considered to be established in the third quarter [1]. - For aluminum, supply has increased slightly, and the demand in August is expected to be in the seasonal off - season. There will be a slight inventory build - up in July and August. Pay attention to demand and consider inter - month and domestic - foreign reverse arbitrage [1][2]. - Zinc prices fluctuated narrowly this week. Supply is expected to increase, and demand is seasonally weak. Short - term advice is to wait and see, hold domestic - foreign positive arbitrage, and pay attention to inter - month positive arbitrage opportunities [5]. - For nickel, the supply of pure nickel remains at a high level, demand is weak, and inventory is stable. Pay attention to the opportunity of the shrinking ratio of nickel to stainless steel [6]. - The fundamentals of stainless steel are weak. With the spread of anti - involution expectations in the short - term macro - environment, pay attention to the policy trend [6][7]. - Lead prices declined slightly this week. Supply and demand are expected to increase slightly in July, but inventory build - up is still expected. Lead prices are expected to fluctuate between 16800 - 17500 next week [9]. - Tin prices fluctuated widely this week. Supply may decline slightly, and demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see or short - sell lightly on rallies [12]. - For industrial silicon, the production of Hesheng may have a significant impact on the supply - demand balance. The market is currently in a de - stocking stage, and the price trend depends on the resumption of production [15]. - The price of lithium carbonate has risen due to resource - end disturbances. The current situation is strong supply and demand, with significant inventory pressure in the middle - link. The long - term situation depends on whether the resource - end risks are resolved [17]. Summary by Metal Copper - Price and Inventory Data: From July 22 - 28, the spot price of Shanghai copper decreased from 250 to 95, and the inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 1699. Other indicators such as import profit and LME inventory also changed [1]. - Market Analysis: The current demand is affected by the off - season and weak trans - shipment. The annual apparent demand is expected to be in the 4.8% - 5.5% range. A short - term cautious but medium - to long - term bullish view is maintained [1]. Aluminum - Price and Inventory Data: From July 22 - 28, the price of Shanghai aluminum ingots decreased by 120, and the inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange remained unchanged. Other indicators such as import profit and LME inventory also changed [1]. - Market Analysis: Supply has increased slightly, and demand in August is expected to be in the off - season. There will be a slight inventory build - up in July and August [1][2]. Zinc - Price and Inventory Data: From July 22 - 28, the price of Shanghai zinc ingots decreased by 120, and the inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange remained unchanged. Other indicators such as import profit and LME inventory also changed [5]. - Market Analysis: Supply is expected to increase, and demand is seasonally weak. Short - term advice is to wait and see, hold domestic - foreign positive arbitrage, and pay attention to inter - month positive arbitrage opportunities [5]. Nickel - Price and Inventory Data: From July 22 - 28, the price of Shanghai nickel decreased by 1500, and the inventory of LME increased by 114. Other indicators such as import profit and LME C - 3M also changed [6]. - Market Analysis: The supply of pure nickel remains at a high level, demand is weak, and inventory is stable. Pay attention to the opportunity of the shrinking ratio of nickel to stainless steel [6]. Stainless Steel - Price and Inventory Data: From July 22 - 28, the price of 304 cold - rolled coil remained unchanged, and the price of 201 cold - rolled coil increased by 50. Other indicators such as waste stainless steel price also changed [6]. - Market Analysis: The fundamentals are weak. With the spread of anti - involution expectations in the short - term macro - environment, pay attention to the policy trend [6][7]. Lead - Price and Inventory Data: From July 22 - 28, the spot price premium increased by 5, and the inventory of LME decreased by 2625. Other indicators such as import profit and LME C - 3M also changed [8]. - Market Analysis: Supply and demand are expected to increase slightly in July, but inventory build - up is still expected. Lead prices are expected to fluctuate between 16800 - 17500 next week [9]. Tin - Price and Inventory Data: From July 22 - 28, the spot import profit increased by 239.11, and the inventory of LME increased by 80. Other indicators such as LME C - 3M also changed [12]. - Market Analysis: Supply may decline slightly, and demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see or short - sell lightly on rallies [12]. Industrial Silicon - Price and Inventory Data: From July 22 - 28, the 421 Yunnan basis increased from - 1105 to - 165, and the 553 East China basis increased from 45 to 1035. The number of warehouse receipts increased [15]. - Market Analysis: The production of Hesheng has a significant impact on the supply - demand balance. The market is currently in a de - stocking stage, and the price trend depends on the resumption of production [15]. Lithium Carbonate - Price and Inventory Data: From July 22 - 28, the SMM electric carbon price increased by 1000, and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 280. Other indicators such as basis also changed [17]. - Market Analysis: The price has risen due to resource - end disturbances. The current situation is strong supply and demand, with significant inventory pressure in the middle - link. The long - term situation depends on whether the resource - end risks are resolved [17].
永安期货有色早报-20250729
Yong An Qi Huo·2025-07-29 05:02