甲醇聚烯烃早报-20250729

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Methanol: High imports are being realized, inventory accumulation has begun, and the futures price is undervalued. It is in a period of bearish factor realization. With unstable macro - environment and weak methanol prices in Europe and the US, the unilateral direction is hard to determine. Due to the low valuation, it is advisable to consider buying at low levels [2]. - Polyethylene: The inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina is neutral year - on - year. The overall inventory is neutral. The 09 basis is around - 150 in North China and - 100 in East China. Import profit is around - 100 with no further increase for now. Non - standard HD injection molding prices are stable, and LD is weakening. In August, maintenance will decrease month - on - month, and domestic linear production will increase. Attention should be paid to LL - HD conversion and new device commissioning [9]. - Polypropylene: The upstream inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina is increasing, while the middle - stream inventory is decreasing. The basis is - 60, non - standard price differences are neutral, and import profit is around - 800. Exports have been good this year. In June, supply is expected to increase slightly month - on - month. If exports continue to expand or PDH device maintenance increases, supply pressure can be alleviated [9]. - PVC: The basis is maintained at 09 - 150, and the factory - pickup basis is - 450. Downstream开工 is seasonally weakening, and the willingness to hold goods at low prices is strong. The inventory reduction of the middle and upstream has slowed down. Attention should be paid to commissioning and export sustainability from July to August. The current static inventory contradiction is accumulating slowly, and costs are stable [9]. 3. Summary by Product Methanol - Price Data: From July 22 to July 28, 2025, the price of power coal futures remained at 801. The price of Jiangsu spot decreased from 2412 to 2397, and the price of South China spot decreased from 2435 to 2400. The import profit increased from 82 to 86, and the main contract basis fluctuated [2]. Polyethylene - Price Data: From July 22 to July 28, 2025, the price of Northeast Asian ethylene remained at 820. The price of North China LL decreased from 7240 to 7180, and the main contract basis changed from - 100 to - 130. The two - oil inventory remained at 73, and the number of warehouse receipts remained at 5816 [9]. Polypropylene - Price Data: From July 22 to July 28, 2025, the price of Shandong propylene decreased from 6350 to 6170. The price of East China PP decreased from 7050 to 7065, and the main contract basis changed from - 40 to - 60. The two - oil inventory remained at 73, and the number of warehouse receipts increased from 12242 to 12695 [9]. PVC - Price Data: From July 22 to July 28, 2025, the price of Northwest calcium carbide decreased from 2250 to 2200. The price of Shandong caustic soda increased from 857 to 857. The price of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China decreased from 5030 to 5060, and the basis of high - end delivery products remained at - 80 [8][9].