广发期货日评-20250729

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - The market shows obvious high - low switching among sectors, with the cooling of pro - cyclical popularity and structural differentiation in stock indices [2]. - The central bank's increased reverse - repurchase injection stabilizes the capital - market expectation. Commodity price corrections due to trading restrictions have improved bond - market sentiment, but short - term volatility is still inevitable [2][3]. - The gold price is supported above the 60 - day moving average by its commodity attribute as the US dollar credit weakens, while silver has further upside potential [2][3]. 3. Summary by Categories Financial - Stock Index Futures: For II - 2509, gradually take profits on IM futures long positions and switch to a small amount of MO put option short positions with a strike price of 6000 in the 08 contract and reduce the position. For other stock index futures like IH2509, IC2509, and IM2509, suggest short - term waiting and paying attention to the capital - market and incremental policies [2]. - Bond Futures: TS2509, TF2509, etc. have improved sentiment due to commodity price corrections, but short - term fluctuations are likely. Attention should be paid to US trade negotiations and the Fed's interest - rate decision [2][3]. - Precious Metals: Gold has been falling as the US - EU trade agreement boosts the US dollar index, but it is supported above the 60 - day moving average. Silver has further upside potential, and long positions can be held [2][3]. Black - Iron Ore: Iron ore has limited upward momentum as iron - water production slightly decreases and port inventories slightly increase. Suggest selling short at high prices for 2509 contracts [2][3]. - Coking Coal and Coke: Short coking coal and long coke. The fourth - round price increase of mainstream coking plants has partially been implemented, and there is still an expectation of further price increases [2][3]. Non - ferrous - Copper: High copper prices suppress demand in the short term, and the main contract reference range is 78000 - 80000 [2][3]. - Aluminum and Related Products: Aluminum prices have slightly declined, and the expectation of inventory accumulation in the off - season is strong. Other non - ferrous metals also have corresponding price trends and trading suggestions [3]. Energy and Chemical - Crude Oil: Geopolitical risks have increased concerns about supply contraction, leading to a rise in oil prices. Short - term band trading is recommended, with resistance levels given for different benchmarks [3]. - Other Chemical Products: Each chemical product such as urea, PX, PTA, etc. has its own supply - demand situation and corresponding trading suggestions [3]. Agricultural Products - Different agricultural products like soybeans, palm oil, sugar, etc. have their own supply - demand characteristics and trading suggestions, such as range - bound trading, short - selling on rebounds, etc. [3]. Special Commodities - Commodities like glass, rubber, and industrial silicon are affected by market sentiment and have corresponding price trends and trading suggestions, such as short - selling cautiously [3]. New Energy - Commodities such as polysilicon and lithium carbonate have been affected by the overall weakening of the commodity market, with corresponding trading suggestions like holding short positions cautiously or waiting and watching [3].