广发期货《能源化工》日报-20250729

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Methanol Industry - The expected peak of inland maintenance is in early August, with current production at a high level year - on - year. There was a slight inventory build - up at ports this week, and the basis weakened. Imports in August are still high, downstream demand is weak due to low profits, and MTO profits have weakened again. The 09 contract has a strong expectation of inventory build - up. In the short term, the proportion of fundamental trading has decreased due to a strong macro - environment. The MTO09 profit is low and the driving force is towards expansion, so it is advisable to expand the spread on dips [1]. Polyolefin Industry - In August, PP maintenance will decrease, and the supply pressure of PE will increase. With new device commissions, the inventory build - up pressure in August will rise. In July, the downstream开工率 of PP/PE was at a low level, and social inventory has accumulated, but downstream raw material stocks have been digested to a low level, with potential restocking conditions. The overall valuation is moderately high, and the fundamental contradictions are not significant. The strategy is to be bearish on PP unilaterally (7200 - 7300) and continue to hold the LP01 position [4]. Crude Oil Industry - Overnight oil prices rose, mainly due to the market's re - pricing of geopolitical risks. Previously, the market was in a pessimistic mood due to the narrative of "weak demand + OPEC+ production increase". Trump's reduction of the cease - fire deadline for Russia and the threat of "100% secondary tariffs" have increased market concerns about geopolitical risks. Geopolitical risks mainly affect the marginal change in supply, and the market needs to re - evaluate the probability of a 3 - million - barrel - per - day supply interruption of Russian oil. In the macro aspect, the energy deal after the US - EU tariff negotiation has strengthened the implementation of sanctions against Russia and increased cross - regional trade costs. Although the demand side is suppressed by the global tariff shadow, the short - term market focus is on the impact of geopolitical risks on the supply side. It is recommended to adopt a short - term band trading strategy, with resistance levels of [67, 68] for WTI, [69, 70] for Brent, and [512, 515] for SC. Options can be used to capture opportunities from increased volatility [7]. Polyester Industry - PX: Short - term supply is stable, driven by domestic macro - sentiment, terminal restocking at low levels is obvious, and the inventory pressure of polyester factories has been alleviated. However, in August, PTA device maintenance will increase, and terminal demand has not improved significantly. The medium - term expectation of crude oil is still weak, and PX's own driving force is limited. It is expected that short - term PX trends will be dominated by macro - sentiment. The strategy is to be cautiously bearish on PX09 around 7000 and expand the PX - SC spread at low levels [11]. - PTA: Current PTA load is around 80%. In August, PTA device maintenance will increase under low processing fees. Terminal restocking at low levels due to domestic macro - sentiment has alleviated the inventory pressure of polyester factories, and PTA supply - demand has improved compared to expectations. However, the medium - term supply - demand expectation is still weak. It is expected that short - term PTA trends will be dominated by macro - sentiment. The strategy is to be bearish on TA above 4900, carry out a rolling reverse spread trade on TA9 - 1, and expand the PTA processing fee at low levels [11]. - Ethylene Glycol: In August, supply - demand is near balance. With the restart of multiple coal - based ethylene glycol devices from late July to early August and the planned restart of Zhejiang Petrochemical in early August, and the plan of some EO - EG co - production devices to switch from EO to EG due to weak downstream demand, domestic supply has become looser. Overseas, multiple Saudi ethylene glycol devices have restarted, and import expectations for August have been revised upwards. Terminal orders are weak in the traditional off - season. Overall, supply - demand has become looser, but it is greatly affected by the macro - environment in the short term. The strategy is to wait and see on EGO9 unilaterally and conduct a 9 - 1 reverse spread trade [11]. - Short Fiber: The supply - demand of short fiber has weakened marginally. Although prices rebounded last week due to domestic macro - sentiment, downstream purchasing power is weak, and the willingness to chase prices is low. The processing fee has been significantly compressed. The short - term supply - demand expectation is still weak, and the absolute price fluctuates with raw materials. The strategy is the same as for TA unilaterally, and the PF processing fee on the disk will fluctuate in the range of 800 - 1100, with limited upward and downward driving forces [11]. - Bottle Chips: Currently, it is the peak season for soft - drink consumption. Some bottle - chip devices are maintaining production cuts, and the processing fee has recovered compared to before the cuts. However, demand follow - up is average, the soft - drink开工率 is down year - on - year, and the supply of bottle chips is still at a historical high, so the inventory reduction is not as expected, limiting the upward space of the processing fee. The absolute price still follows the cost side. The strategy is the same as for PTA unilaterally, and the main - contract processing fee on the disk is expected to fluctuate in the range of 350 - 600 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the opportunity to expand the spread at the lower limit of the range [11]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - Pure Benzene: There is an expectation of restarting previously shut - down devices, and the price transmission of downstream products other than styrene is not smooth. Coupled with a relatively high absolute level of port inventory, its own driving force is limited. Recently, the domestic commodity market has been greatly affected by anti - involution sentiment, and the fundamental logic has weakened. Short - term pure benzene trends will fluctuate with the overall market sentiment. The main - contract BZ2603 has limited self - driving force and will follow the trends of oil prices and styrene unilaterally [15]. - Styrene: In the short term, styrene开工率 is at a high level. Downstream EPS/PS factories are reducing production due to compressed industry profits and are cautious in raw material procurement. The supply - demand expectation of styrene is weak, and port inventory continues to increase. Recently, the styrene basis has weakened significantly. As the domestic commodity market sentiment cools down, the fundamental logic weakens. Short - term styrene trends will fluctuate with the overall market sentiment, but the rebound space is limited due to the weak supply - demand expectation. The strategy is to conduct a rolling bearish operation on EB09 [15]. Urea Industry - The urea disk has significantly declined, mainly due to the contradiction between shrinking demand and relatively loose supply. The summer top - dressing season is coming to an end, agricultural demand is gradually shrinking, compound fertilizer factories only purchase opportunistically due to inactive demand, and industrial rigid - demand procurement cannot offset the decline in agricultural demand, resulting in weak overall demand support. Although the urea enterprise开工率 is below 200,000 tons per day, the daily output is still 16,700 tons higher than the same period last year, with sufficient supply, further exacerbating the supply - demand imbalance. In addition, the sharp decline in the black - goods sector and the resonance of market sentiment have also put pressure on the urea disk. In the short term, the market is hard to improve. It is necessary to pay attention to the progress of autumn fertilizer start - up and the resumption of production of previously shut - down devices [41]. PVC - Caustic Soda Industry - Caustic Soda: The overall market sentiment has declined, and the caustic soda disk has fallen, but the decline is relatively small compared to other varieties, remaining relatively firm. The spot market is temporarily stable, with a certain willingness to support prices. Fundamentally, the supply in the East China region is relatively abundant, non - aluminum demand has not improved significantly, and the downstream off - season continues. It is expected that the caustic soda price will be stable this week. Many downstream enterprises resist high prices, and inventory has increased with the increase in supply. In the short term, macro - disturbances are intense, and trading risks have increased. The disk shows signs of rising and then falling. It is recommended to be cautious and avoid risks [48]. - PVC: The market sentiment declined significantly yesterday. The main PVC contract fell by 2.68%. Many industrial products that were strongly pulled up by policy sentiment in the previous period hit the daily limit today, and PVC was also affected by the overall market sentiment and fell significantly. However, some previously shut - down devices have resumed production, and it is expected that the supply will increase this week. On the demand side, the domestic downstream product开工率 remains low, with no signs of improvement. The delay in the announcement of India's anti - dumping tax has provided time for exports, and export expectations are good. Overall, the supply exceeds demand in terms of fundamentals. With the decline in market sentiment, it is advisable to consider shorting on rallies [48]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Methanol Industry - Price and Spread: The closing prices of MA2601 and MA2509 decreased by 3.67% and 4.57% respectively from July 25th to July 28th. The MA91 spread decreased by 29.41%, and the Taicang basis decreased by 87.30%. The spot prices in Inner Mongolia, Henan, and Taicang also declined [1]. - Inventory: The inventory of medium - sized methanol enterprises decreased by 3.55%, the port inventory decreased by 8.15%, and the social inventory decreased by 6.73% [1]. - 开工率: The upstream domestic enterprise开工率 decreased by 1.01%, the downstream MTO device开工率 increased by 0.56%, and the formaldehyde开工率 decreased by 7.25% [1]. Polyolefin Industry - Price and Spread: The closing prices of L2601, L2509, PP2601, and PP2509 decreased, while the L2509 - 2601 spread increased by 35.42% and the PP2509 - 2601 spread decreased by 60.00%. The spot prices of East China PP and North China LLDPE also declined [4]. - 开工率: The PE device开工率 decreased by 2.10%, the PE downstream weighted开工率 decreased by 0.47%, the PP device开工率 decreased by 1.1%, and the PP powder开工率 increased by 6.9% [4]. - Inventory: The PE enterprise inventory increased by 12.48%, the PE social inventory increased by 0.59%, the PP enterprise inventory increased by 1.95%, and the PP trader inventory increased by 3.21% [4]. Crude Oil Industry - Price and Spread: Brent, WTI, and SC prices increased on July 29th compared to July 28th, with increases of 2.34%, 0.39%, and 1.84% respectively. Some spreads such as Brent M1 - M3 and WTI M1 - M3 decreased [7]. - Refined Oil Price and Spread: The prices of NYM RBOB, NYM ULSD, and ICE Gasoil had different changes, and some spreads such as RBOB M1 - M3 and ULSD M1 - M3 decreased [7]. - Refined Oil Crack Spread: The crack spreads of some refined oil products such as US gasoline and US diesel increased, while those of some others such as Singapore gasoline and European diesel decreased [7]. Polyester Industry - Downstream Polyester Product Price and Cash Flow: The prices of POY150/48, FDY150/96, etc. had different changes, and the cash flows of some products such as POY150/48 and FDY150/96 decreased [11]. - PX - Related Price and Spread: The prices of CFR China PX, PX futures, etc. decreased, and relevant spreads such as PX - crude oil and PX - naphtha also changed [11]. - PTA - Related Price and Spread: The PTA spot price and futures prices decreased, and the PTA processing fee increased [11]. - MEG - Related Price and Spread: The MEG spot price and futures prices decreased, and the MEG basis increased [11]. - 开工率: The开工 rates of Asian PX, Chinese PX, PTA, MEG, and polyester had different changes [11]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - Upstream Price and Spread: The prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, etc. increased, while the prices of CFR China pure benzene and pure benzene in East China decreased [15]. - Styrene - Related Price and Spread: The prices of styrene in East China and styrene futures decreased, and the styrene cash flow and spreads such as EB - BZ decreased [15]. - Downstream Cash Flow: The cash flows of phenol, caprolactam, etc. had different changes [15]. - Inventory: The pure benzene inventory in Jiangsu ports decreased by 0.6%, and the styrene inventory in Jiangsu ports increased by 8.8% [15]. - 开工率: The开工 rates of Asian pure benzene, domestic pure benzene, and some downstream products had different changes [15]. Urea Industry - Futures Price and Spread: The closing prices of 01, 05, and 09 contracts decreased, and relevant spreads such as 01 - 05 and 05 - 09 changed [36][37]. - Position and Volume: The long - position of the top 20 decreased by 8.78%, the short - position of the top 20 decreased by 10.90%, and the trading volume increased by 5.59% [38]. - Upstream Raw Material Price: The prices of raw materials such as anthracite small pieces and动力煤 were relatively stable [39]. - Spot Price and Spread: The spot prices of urea in different regions decreased, and relevant spreads such as Shandong - Henan and Guangdong - Henan changed [40]. - Supply and Demand: The daily and weekly production of urea,开工率, and inventory had different changes. The overall supply was relatively loose, and demand was weak [41]. PVC - Caustic Soda Industry - PVC and Caustic Soda Price and Spread: The prices of PVC and caustic soda futures and spot decreased, and relevant spreads such as SH2509 - 2601 and V2509 - V2601 changed [44]. - Export Profit: The export profit of caustic soda and PVC had different changes [44][45]. - 开工率: The开工 rates of the caustic soda industry, PVC industry, and their downstream industries had different changes [46][47][48]. - Inventory: The inventories of caustic soda and PVC in different regions and forms had different changes [48].