Report Title - Synthetic Rubber Industry Daily Report 2025-07-29 [1] Report's Core View - Recently, the support from cost and supply side has loosened, and the trading center of butadiene rubber has been under pressure. After the restart of Yanshan Petrochemical, Jinzhou Petrochemical and Heze Kexin this week, the increase in domestic supply is gradually emerging, and the pressure on spot sales has increased. It is expected that the inventory of production enterprises will tend to increase. In terms of demand, the resumption of production of some unexpectedly overhauled enterprises drove a slight increase in the overall capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises last week. As the end of the month approaches, the overall sales performance of enterprises falls short of expectations, the finished product inventory increases slightly, and the overall order performance is insufficient. Some enterprises may have short-term overhaul plans from the end of July to the beginning of August, and the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises is expected to decline in the short term. The br2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,650 - 12,200 yuan/ton in the short term [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 11,835 yuan/ton, a decrease of 120 yuan/ton; the position of the main contract is 41,136 lots, a decrease of 3,967 lots. The price difference between synthetic rubber 9 - 10 is 30 yuan/ton, and the number of warehouse receipts for butadiene rubber is 2,290 tons [2] Spot Market - The mainstream price of butadiene rubber (BR9000, Qilu Petrochemical) in Shandong is 12,150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of butadiene rubber (BR9000, Daqing Petrochemical) in Shandong is 12,100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of butadiene rubber (BR9000, Daqing Petrochemical) in Shanghai is 12,100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton. The basis of synthetic rubber is 65 yuan/ton [2] Upstream Situation - The price of Brent crude oil is 70.04 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 1.6 US dollars/barrel; the price of WTI crude oil is 66.71 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 1.55 US dollars/barrel. The price of naphtha CFR Japan is 820 US dollars/ton, the price of Northeast Asian ethylene is 1,100 US dollars/ton, and the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China is 578.5 US dollars/ton. The capacity of butadiene this week is 14.77 million tons/week, the capacity utilization rate is 70%, an increase of 2.04 percentage points; the port inventory of butadiene is 15,700 tons, a decrease of 4,300 tons; the operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 48.16%, an increase of 0.85 percentage points [2] Downstream Situation - The production of butadiene rubber this month is 122,500 tons, a decrease of 16,900 tons; the capacity utilization rate this week is 67.63%, an increase of 2.42 percentage points; the production profit this week is -440 yuan/ton; the social inventory is 32,300 tons, unchanged; the manufacturer's inventory is 24,850 tons, a decrease of 800 tons; the trader's inventory is 7,470 tons, an increase of 870 tons. The operating rate of domestic semi-steel tires is 75.87%, a decrease of 0.12 percentage points; the operating rate of domestic all-steel tires is 65.02%, a decrease of 0.08 percentage points. The production of all-steel tires this month is 12.62 million pieces, an increase of 800,000 pieces; the production of semi-steel tires this month is 55.23 million pieces, an increase of 1.08 million pieces. The inventory days of all-steel tires in Shandong are 40.95 days, an increase of 0.1 days; the inventory days of semi-steel tires in Shandong are 46.55 days, an increase of 0.37 days [2] Industry News - As of July 23, the inventory of high-cis butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China was 32,300 tons, a slight increase from the previous period, with a month-on-month increase of 0.22%. As of July 24, the capacity utilization rate of semi-steel tire sample enterprises in China was 70.06%, a month-on-month increase of 1.93 percentage points and a year-on-year decrease of 10.06 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all-steel tire sample enterprises in China was 62.23%, a month-on-month increase of 0.25 percentage points and a year-on-year increase of 3.98 percentage points. In June 2025, China's butadiene rubber export volume was 29,748.90 tons, a month-on-month increase of 5.99%; from January to June 2025, the total export volume was 152,812.3 tons, an increase of 35,992.05 tons compared with the same period last year, a year-on-year increase of 30.81%. In June 2025, China's butadiene rubber import volume was 19,183.53 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 20.38%; from January to June 2025, the total import volume was 138,619.08 tons, an increase of 2,537.53 tons compared with the same period last year, a year-on-year increase of 1.86% [2] Key Points to Focus On - There is no news today [2]
合成橡胶产业日报-20250729
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-07-29 09:37