瑞达期货甲醇产业日报-20250729

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The MA2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2400 - 2450 in the short - term [2]. - Last week, due to favorable macro - policies, the market trading atmosphere was good, and inland enterprises' shipments were smooth, leading to a significant decrease in enterprise inventory and a slight increase in pending orders. The port unloading speed was far lower than expected, and the methanol port inventory decreased unexpectedly. This week, the arrival of foreign vessels may increase significantly, and the port methanol inventory may increase significantly, but the impact of weather and other factors on the unloading speed needs to be noted. In terms of demand, the load of olefin enterprises in East China decreased slightly last week, and the overall domestic olefin industry's start - up decreased slightly. This week, the Zhongmei Mengda device is expected to resume, and the olefin industry's start - up will increase [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract was 2434 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton; the 9 - 1 spread was - 86 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton [2]. - The main contract's open interest was 576,028 lots, a decrease of 40,687 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 103,150 lots, an increase of 9,516 lots [2]. - The number of warehouse receipts was 9,834, a decrease of 220 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang was 2390 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price in Inner Mongolia was 2035 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton [2]. - The East - Northwest price difference was 355 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton; the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract was - 44 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton [2]. - The CFR price of methanol at the main Chinese port was 273 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 12 US dollars/ton; the CFR price in Southeast Asia was 333 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2]. - The FOB price in Rotterdam was 235 euros/ton, an increase of 16 euros/ton; the price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia was - 60 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 12 US dollars/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas was 3.03 US dollars/million British thermal units, a decrease of 0.07 US dollars/million British thermal units [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory in East China ports was 54.7 tons, a decrease of 8.7 tons; the inventory in South China ports was 17.88 tons, an increase of 2.26 tons [2]. - The methanol import profit was 22.98 yuan/ton, an increase of 11.39 yuan/ton; the monthly import volume was 122.02 tons, a decrease of 7.21 tons [2]. - The inventory of inland enterprises was 339,800 tons, a decrease of 12,500 tons; the methanol enterprise start - up rate was 83.98%, an increase of 1.29 percentage points [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The formaldehyde start - up rate was 37.74%, a decrease of 5.91 percentage points; the dimethyl ether start - up rate was 5.19%, unchanged [2]. - The acetic acid start - up rate was 92.69%, an increase of 2.1 percentage points; the MTBE start - up rate was 69.01%, an increase of 1.38 percentage points [2]. - The olefin start - up rate was 84.95%, a decrease of 0.15 percentage points; the methanol - to - olefin disk profit was - 942 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan/ton [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol was 26.04%, an increase of 0.35 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 27.76%, an increase of 0.09 percentage points [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for methanol was 25.33%, a decrease of 5.18 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 25.32%, a decrease of 5.19 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - As of July 23, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 33.98 tons, a decrease of 1.25 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 3.55%; the pending orders of sample enterprises were 24.48 tons, an increase of 0.17 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 0.70% [2]. - As of July 23, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 72.58 tons, a decrease of 6.44 tons from the previous data. Among them, the inventory in East China decreased by 8.70 tons, and the inventory in South China increased by 2.26 tons [2]. - As of July 24, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin plants was 86.08%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.15% [2].