瑞达期货白糖产业日报-20250729

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Internationally, the rainy season has led to a positive supply outlook in major Asian sugar - producing countries, causing a bearish supply expectation over the raw sugar market. However, lower - than - expected ATR in Brazil's central - southern region and potential demand from countries like Pakistan, the Philippines, and Iran provide some support, with prices hovering at low levels in the short term [2]. - Domestically, there is a divergence in price strength between domestic and foreign markets. The profit window for out - of - quota imports has opened, leading to a significant increase in imports in June, which suppresses sugar prices. On the demand side, the hot summer weather boosts the demand for food and beverage inventory and seasonal consumption of cold drinks, providing some support [2]. - Overall, the slowdown of the decline in the external market weakens its drag on domestic prices. The peak domestic demand season boosts the sugar futures price, but the increase in imports and the global supply surplus expectation limit the upside potential. The price will mainly fluctuate. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the sugar futures main contract is 5867 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan; the main contract's open interest is 310,650 lots, down 14,181 lots; the number of sugar warehouse receipts is 19,746, down 404; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 947 lots; the total valid warehouse receipt forecast is 0 [2]. 现货市场 - The estimated import processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4458 yuan/ton, down 54 yuan; outside the quota (50% tariff), it is 5662 yuan/ton, down 72 yuan. The estimated import processing price of Thai sugar within the quota is 4509 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan; outside the quota (50% tariff), it is 5729 yuan/ton, down 71 yuan. The spot prices in Kunming, Nanning, and Liuzhou are 5915 yuan/ton, 6050 yuan/ton, and 6120 yuan/ton respectively, with no change [2]. Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop sown area is 1480 thousand hectares, up 60 thousand hectares; the sown area of sugar - cane in Guangxi is 835.09 thousand hectares, down 12.86 thousand hectares. The national cumulative sugar production is 11.1621 million tons, up 54,900 tons; the cumulative sugar sales volume is 8.1138 million tons, up 869,200 tons. The national industrial sugar inventory is 3.0483 million tons, down 814,300 tons; the national sugar sales rate is 72.69%, up 7.47 percentage points. The monthly import volume of sugar is 420,000 tons, up 70,000 tons; the monthly total sugar exports from Brazil are 3.359 million tons, up 1.1024 million tons [2]. Industry Situation - The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1502 yuan/ton, up 53 yuan; outside the quota (50% tariff), it is 298 yuan/ton, up 71 yuan. The price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1451 yuan/ton, up 54 yuan; outside the quota (50% tariff), it is 231 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan [2]. Downstream Situation - The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of refined sugar production is 16.7%, up 2.6 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of soft drink production is 2.9%, down 0.1 percentage point [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar is 9.83%, down 0.39 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 9.82%, down 0.41 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility is 5.01%, up 0.41 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility is 6.89%, down 0.06 percentage points [2]. Industry News - Brazil exported 3.17573456 million tons of sugar in the first four weeks of July, with an average daily export volume of 167,143.92 tons, a 2% increase compared to the average daily export volume in July last year. On Monday, the ICE raw sugar October contract rose 0.92%, and the sugar 2509 contract rose 0.17% [2].