瑞达期货红枣产业日报-20250729

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current jujube market has a seasonal demand slump and high inventory of old jujubes, but there is periodic replenishment to support prices. The new - season jujubes are in the critical fruit - setting period, and the market focuses on the weather in the producing areas. The estimated new - season output is expected to decline by 5 - 10% compared to the normal year of 2022 and 20 - 25% compared to 2024, with an estimated output of 56 - 62 million tons. The reduction is less than the absolute low in 2023. There are both bullish and bearish factors in the fundamentals. The implementation of the plan to promote agricultural product consumption by ten departments including the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs boosts market confidence. In the short term, market sentiment dominates the price fluctuations, and it will return to the fundamentals later. It is recommended to wait and see and focus on the new - season output [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main jujube futures contract is 10,790 yuan/ton, the main contract position is 136,558 lots (a decrease of 1,475 lots), the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 2,568 lots, the number of warehouse receipts is 8,739, and the effective warehouse receipt forecast is 1,455 [2]. Spot Market - The prices of jujube in different regions vary. For example, the unified - grade jujube price in Kashgar is 6 yuan/kg, the first - grade grey jujube wholesale price in Hebei is 4.45 yuan/jin, and the special - grade jujube price in Guangdong is 11 yuan/kg [2]. Upstream Market - The annual jujube output is 3.187 million tons, and the planting area is 1.993 million hectares (a decrease of 41,000 hectares) [2]. Industry Situation - The national jujube inventory is 10,090 tons (a decrease of 230 tons from last week, a 2.23% week - on - week decrease and a 73.07% year - on - year increase), the monthly jujube export volume is 1,765,107 kg (a decrease of 464,120 kg), and the cumulative monthly export volume is 17,115,674 kg [2]. Downstream Situation - The jujube wholesale price in the Hexi Agricultural and Sideline Products Market in Taiyuan, Shanxi is 1.47 yuan/kg. The cumulative sales volume of Haoxiangni's jujubes is 36,480.43 tons (a decrease of 2,981.06 tons), and the cumulative year - on - year jujube production of Haoxiangni is - 34.59% [2]. Industry News - On July 29, there was light rain in Aksu with temperatures between 18 - 32°C. Jujube farmers are actively managing their orchards. The mainstream per - mu yield is estimated to be between 700 - 800 kg. The 2601 jujube futures contract fell 1.33% on Tuesday [2].