瑞达期货工业硅产业日报-20250729

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The overall production of industrial silicon has a potential increasing trend due to the resumption of production in some southwestern regions, but the total demand from the three major downstream industries continues to slow down. Today, the spot price of industrial silicon dropped significantly, and the futures price declined in the early session but was significantly pulled up by polysilicon. It is expected to remain under pressure in the future, and it is recommended to short on rallies [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract was 9,350 yuan/ton, up 435 yuan; the position of the main contract was 276,734 lots, down 2,334 lots; the net position of the top 20 was -74,088 lots, up 5,853 lots; the warehouse receipts of GEX were 49,710 lots, down 66 lots; the price difference between August and September industrial silicon was -45 yuan, up 15 yuan [2]. Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - permeable 553 silicon was 9,800 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan; the average price of 421 silicon was 10,150 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the basis of the Si main contract was 450 yuan/ton, down 585 yuan; the DMC spot price was 12,300 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Upstream Situation - The average price of silica was 410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of petroleum coke was 1,720 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of clean coal was 1,850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of wood chips was 490 yuan/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) was 12,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly output of industrial silicon was 305,200 tons, up 5,500 tons; the weekly social inventory of industrial silicon was 552,000 tons, up 10,000 tons; the monthly import volume of industrial silicon was 2,211.36 tons, up 71.51 tons; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon was 52,919.65 tons, down 12,197.89 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The weekly output of silicone DMC was 44,900 tons, up 700 tons; the overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon was 15.75 US dollars/kg, unchanged; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot was 20,200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon was 4.94 US dollars/kg, unchanged; the monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy was 25,770.18 tons; the weekly operating rate of silicone DMC was 65.11%, down 6.27 percentage points; the monthly output of aluminum alloy was 1.669 million tons, up 24,000 tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy was 20,187.85 tons, down 337.93 tons [2]. Industry News - The Sichuan Ferroalloy (Industrial Silicon) Industry Association issued a joint initiative against involution in industrial silicon, advocating selling products at no less than the full - cost price, resisting low - price bidding and vicious competition. The supply situation of industrial silicon this week is complex. In the Ili region of the northwest, large - scale production enterprises maintain the existing production rhythm. In the southwest region, the resumption of production in Baoshan is active, but the resumption scale in Nujiang and Dehong fails to meet expectations. In Sichuan, manufacturers rely on self - owned power plants to ensure supply, and the overall operating rate does not increase significantly [2]. Demand Analysis - In the organic silicon field, the spot price has increased due to a monomer plant fire, and the production profit has risen, while the operating rate has declined, which supports industrial silicon. In the polysilicon field, mainstream enterprises are reducing production, the industry is operating at a reduced load, downstream photovoltaic is against involution, demand has declined significantly, and the demand for industrial silicon has decreased. In the aluminum alloy field, enterprises replenish inventory as needed, inventory continues to increase, prices rise, and it is in a passive destocking stage, so it is difficult to drive the demand for industrial silicon [2].