沪铜产业日报-20250729

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The main contract of Shanghai copper fluctuated weakly, with a decrease in trading volume and an increase in spot premium and basis. The cost - support logic for copper prices remains due to the negative TC fees of copper concentrates and tight copper ore supply. The growth rate of domestic refined copper production may slow slightly due to the decline of raw material port inventory and policy adjustments. The downstream processing enterprises are in the off - season, and they are sensitive to high - priced copper, resulting in a dull spot market. The social inventory decreased slightly and remains at a medium - low level. Overall, the fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a stage where supply growth slows slightly, demand is temporarily weak but the outlook is gradually improving. The option market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility decreased slightly. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows that the double lines are below the 0 - axis with a shrinking green column. The operation suggestion is to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position, while paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper was 78,840 yuan/ton, down 160 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper was 9,770 dollars/ton, down 23 dollars. The spread between the main contract and the next - month contract was - 20 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The trading volume of the main contract of Shanghai copper was 173,684 lots, down 2,408 lots. The positions of the top 20 futures traders of Shanghai copper were 6,687 lots, down 1,567 lots. The LME copper inventory was 127,400 tons, down 1,075 tons. The inventory of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 73,423 tons (weekly), down 11,133 tons. The warehouse receipts of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 18,083 tons, down 2,856 tons [2]. 3.2现货市场 - The price of SMM 1 copper spot was 79,025 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot was 79,005 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper was 65 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper was 51.5 dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of the CU main contract was 185 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan; the LME copper premium (0 - 3) was - 54.34 dollars/ton, down 0.66 dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 234.97 million tons (monthly), down 4.58 million tons. The TC fee of domestic copper smelters was - 42.63 dollars/thousand tons (weekly), up 0.82 dollars. The price of copper concentrates in Jiangxi was 69,320 yuan/metal ton, down 150 yuan; the price of copper concentrates in Yunnan was 70,020 yuan/metal ton, down 150 yuan. The processing fee of blister copper in the south was 800 yuan/ton (weekly), unchanged; the processing fee of blister copper in the north was 750 yuan/ton (weekly), unchanged. The production of refined copper was 130.20 million tons (monthly), up 4.80 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products was 460,000 tons (monthly), up 30,000 tons [2]. 3.4产业情况 - The social inventory of copper was 41.82 million tons (weekly), up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire scrap in Shanghai was 55,340 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; the price of 2 copper scrap (94 - 96%) in Shanghai was 67,700 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper was 640 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.5下游及应用 - The production of copper products was 221.45 million tons (monthly), up 11.85 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure was 29.11 billion yuan (monthly), up 8.7114 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development was 466.5756 billion yuan (monthly), up 104.2372 billion yuan. The monthly production of integrated circuits was 4,505,785,400 pieces, up 270,785,400 pieces [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper was 10.45%, down 0.66%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper was 10.09%, up 0.02%. The implied volatility of the current - month at - the - money IV was 11.41%, down 0.0110. The put - call ratio of at - the - money options was 1.47, down 0.0907 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - Trump may impose a unified tariff of 15% - 20% on imported goods from countries that have not negotiated a separate trade agreement with the US. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology deployed eight key tasks for the second half of the year, including formulating action plans to enhance the adaptability of consumer goods supply and demand, promoting the development and application of technologies such as AI terminals, smart wearables, and drones, and strengthening the governance of key industries such as photovoltaics. The hawkish ECB Governing Council member Kazimir said that the ECB is not in a hurry to cut borrowing costs again. The 2025 World Artificial Intelligence Conference closed, with procurement demands of over 300 projects announced and an expected intended procurement amount of 16.2 billion yuan, and 31 projects worth over 15 billion yuan were signed. Trump opened the market of the EU, which will open its 20 - trillion - dollar market, accept US automotive and industrial standards, buy 750 billion dollars of energy products from the US, invest 600 billion dollars in the US, and the US will set a 15% tariff on EU products exported to the US [2].