苹果产业日报-20250729

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The old - crop apple inventory is low with little sales pressure, and transactions are priced according to quality. Some early - maturing varieties have a serious regreening phenomenon, and the actual transaction prices of varieties such as Qinyang, Meiba, and Luli have dropped by 0.30 - 0.50 yuan per jin. The purchase price of early - maturing varieties has declined, weakening the price support. Coupled with the influence of capital flow, the apple futures rose and then fell. On Tuesday, the 2510 contract significantly reduced positions and corrected, giving back the decline of the past week. It is recommended to close long positions and wait and see [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the October contract for apples is 7,908 yuan/ton; the holding volume of the main contract is 103,588 hands, a decrease of 23,673 hands. The number of warehouse receipts is 0, and the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 3,875 hands, a decrease of 1,846 hands [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of Shandong Yantai Qixia (paper - bagged, above 80, second - grade fruit farmer's goods) is 4 yuan/jin [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national apple output is 5,128.51 million tons, an increase of 168.34 million tons; the average wholesale price of apples is 9.75 yuan/kg; the average wholesale price of Fuji apples is 9.73 yuan/kg; the total inventory of national apple cold storages is 70.45 million tons, a decrease of 10.15 million tons; the storage capacity ratio of Shandong apples is 11.12%, a decrease of 1.03%; the storage capacity ratio of Shaanxi apples is 3.65%, a decrease of 0.98%; the storage capacity ratio of Gansu apples is 2.77%, a decrease of 0.92%; the monthly export volume of apples is 40,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons; the monthly export value of apples is 4,330.8 million US dollars; the monthly import value of fresh and dried fruits and nuts is 1,955,488 million US dollars, a decrease of 245,562.17 million US dollars; the profit of first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 apple storage merchants is 0.7 yuan/jin [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The average wholesale price of tangerines is 10.04 yuan/kg; the wholesale price of bananas is 3.92 yuan/kg; the wholesale price of watermelons is 6.06 yuan/kg; the early - morning average daily arrival volume at the Guangdong Jiangmen Wholesale Market is 6.8 vehicles, an increase of 1 vehicle; the early - morning average daily arrival volume at the Guangdong Xiaqiao Wholesale Market is 14.6 vehicles; the early - morning average daily arrival volume at the Guangdong Chalong Wholesale Market is 8.8 vehicles, a decrease of 2 vehicles [2]. 3.5 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for apples is 22.73%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for apples is 22.73% [2]. 3.6 Industry News - On July 29, 2025, the trading of inventory apples in the western production areas basically ended, and the remaining goods were mainly shipped by merchants themselves. The coloring of early - maturing apples was slow, and the redness was slightly poor. The actual transaction prices of varieties such as Qinyang, Meiba, and Luli decreased by 0.30 - 0.50 yuan/jin. In the Shandong production area, the number of inquiring merchants increased, the trading was smooth at the right price, and the trading atmosphere improved slightly. The apple 2510 contract closed down 3.1% on Tuesday. According to the preliminary estimate of the bagging volume survey data by Mysteel, the national apple output is expected to be 3,736.64 million tons, an increase of 85.93 million tons or 2.35% compared with the 2024 - 2025 production season [2]. 3.7 Viewpoint Summary - As of July 23, 2025, the inventory of national main - producing area apple cold storages was 70.45 million tons, a decrease of 10.15 million tons compared with last week. The shipping speed was about the same as last week and basically the same as last year. The storage capacity ratio in the Shandong production area was 11.12%, a decrease of 1.03% compared with last week, and the de - stocking speed was still average. The storage capacity ratio in the Shaanxi production area was 3.65%, a decrease of 0.98% compared with last week, and the shipping was slightly faster than last week. The storage capacity ratio in the Gansu production area was 2.77%, a decrease of 0.92% compared with last week, and the shipping in the Gansu production area was sporadic [2].