Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall inventory of spot goods at Qingdao Port has shown a slight accumulation trend recently, with the bonded area maintaining de - stocking and the general trade warehouse showing inventory accumulation. Overseas goods arriving at the port and entering the warehouse remain relatively low, but the overall outbound volume is less than expected due to terminal wait - and - see attitude. In terms of demand, the production recovery of some unexpectedly overhauled enterprises drove a slight increase in the overall capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises last week. However, near the end of the month, the overall shipment performance of enterprises was less than expected, the finished product inventory increased slightly, and due to insufficient overall orders, some enterprises may have short - term overhaul plans from the end of July to early August. The short - term capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises is expected to decline. The ru2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 14,600 - 15,500, and the nr2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,500 - 13,000 [2] Group 3: Summary of Each Section Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai Rubber was 15,010 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan; the closing price of the main contract of 20 - numbered rubber was 12,670 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan. The 9 - 1 spread of Shanghai Rubber was - 785 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the 9 - 10 spread of 20 - numbered rubber was - 20 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. The spread between Shanghai Rubber and 20 - numbered rubber was 2,340 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan. The trading volume of the main contract of Shanghai Rubber decreased by 10,456 lots to 108,879 lots, and that of the main contract of 20 - numbered rubber decreased by 3,308 lots to 51,979 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai Rubber was - 27,577, an increase of 848; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - numbered rubber was - 10,611, an increase of 732. The warehouse receipts of Shanghai Rubber decreased by 100 tons to 181,920 tons, and the warehouse receipts of 20 - numbered rubber increased by 1,209 tons to 38,808 tons [2] Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,900 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L was 15,000 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. The price of Thai Standard STR20 was 1,820 US dollars/ton, down 50 US dollars; the price of Malaysian Standard SMR20 was 1,820 US dollars/ton, down 50 US dollars. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 14,700 yuan/ton, down 400 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 14,650 yuan/ton, down 400 yuan. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's Styrene - Butadiene Rubber 1502 was 12,500 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's Butadiene Rubber BR9000 was 12,100 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan. The basis of Shanghai Rubber was - 110 yuan/ton, down 145 yuan; the basis of non - standard products of the main contract of Shanghai Rubber was - 365 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan. The price of 20 - numbered rubber in the Qingdao market was 12,971 yuan/ton, down 384 yuan; the basis of the main contract of 20 - numbered rubber was 301 yuan/ton, down 244 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The market reference price of smoked sheets of Thai raw rubber was 65.33 Thai baht/kg, down 0.26 Thai baht; the market reference price of rubber sheets of Thai raw rubber was 63.11 Thai baht/kg, down 0.44 Thai baht. The market reference price of glue of Thai raw rubber was 55.3 Thai baht/kg, unchanged; the market reference price of cup lump of Thai raw rubber was 50 Thai baht/kg, unchanged. The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was 140.8 US dollars/ton, down 33.8 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 was 35.2 US dollars/ton, up 2.6 US dollars. The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber was 120,900 tons, down 27,300 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 280,800 tons, up 58,500 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires was 65.02%, down 0.08 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires was 75.87%, down 0.12 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week was 40.95 days, up 0.1 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week was 46.55 days, up 0.37 days. The monthly output of all - steel tires was 12.62 million pieces, up 800,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 55.23 million pieces, up 1.08 million pieces [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 19.61%, up 0.1 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 18.59%, up 0.07 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 39%, up 1.12 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 38.99%, up 1.11 percentage points [2] Industry News - From July 27th to August 2nd, 2025, the rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia increased compared with the previous period. In the northern hemisphere, the red areas were mainly in sporadic areas such as southern Myanmar and southern Cambodia, and the rainfall in most other areas was low, which had less impact on rubber tapping. In the southern hemisphere, there were no red areas, and the rainfall in most other areas was low, with little impact on rubber tapping. As of July 27th, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in the bonded and general trade areas in Qingdao was 640,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6,000 tons, an increase of 0.91%. The bonded area inventory was 75,800 tons, a decrease of 2.70%; the general trade inventory was 564,600 tons, an increase of 1.42%. The inbound rate of the sample bonded warehouses in Qingdao decreased by 0.38 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 0.63 percentage points; the inbound rate of the general trade warehouses increased by 1.67 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 0.14 percentage points. As of July 24th, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 70.06%, a month - on - month increase of 1.93 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 10.06 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.23%, a month - on - month increase of 0.25 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.98 percentage points. The production of some unexpectedly overhauled enterprises basically recovered, driving a slight increase in the overall capacity utilization rate [2]
瑞达期货天然橡胶产业日报-20250729
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-07-29 11:11