农产品早报-20250730

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is an agricultural products morning report released by the research center's agricultural products team on July 30, 2025 [1][2] Group 2: Corn/Starch Price Data - From July 23 - 29, 2025, in Changchun, the price remained 2230; in Jinzhou, it stayed at 2300 - 2310; in Weifang, it increased by 10 to 2454; in Shekou, it remained 2430. The corn basis increased by 17, and the import profit increased by 23. For starch, the price in Heilongjiang and Weifang remained 2850 and 2950 respectively, the basis increased by 17, and the processing profit remained unchanged [3] Market Analysis - For corn, reserve - imported corn auctions continued this week with成交 rates of 27% and 28%, easing supply tightness. In the short - term, the supply pressure increase from auctions is limited. There may be a supply - demand gap before new crops are launched. In the long - term, if import profit persists, it may increase forward import orders, and new - season supply may pressure prices. For starch, the price was stable this week with slightly better transactions but still in inventory accumulation. In the short - term, it may have a weak rebound; in the long - term, high inventory and expected lower raw material costs are bearish [4] Group 3: Sugar Price Data - From July 23 - 29, 2025, the spot prices in Liuzhou, Nanning, and Kunming remained unchanged. The basis decreased by 22, the import profit from Thailand decreased by 45, from Brazil decreased by 46, and the warehouse receipts decreased by 404 [7] Market Analysis - Internationally, Brazil is in the peak crushing season, pressuring sugar prices. Due to lower - than - expected yields and sugar extraction rates, there may be a corrective rebound. Domestically, it follows international prices with smaller fluctuations. With a large amount of imported sugar arriving, the futures price faces upward pressure [7] Group 4: Cotton/Cotton Yarn Price Data - From July 23 - 29, 2025, the price of 3128 cotton decreased by 55 to 15165, the import profit decreased, the warehouse receipts + forecasts decreased by 72, the import profit of Vietnamese yarn decreased by 26, and the 32S spinning profit increased by 58 [9] Market Analysis - Cotton prices rose due to inventory reduction at the end of the season, but downstream demand is weak, and textile profits are at a low level. Whether the upward trend can continue needs verification in the September peak season. Uncertainty exists in single - sided trading, and 9 - 11 or 9 - 1 reverse spreads can be considered [9] Group 5: Eggs Price Data - From July 23 - 29, 2025, the spot prices in Hebei, Liaoning, Shandong, and Henan remained unchanged, while in Hubei, it remained 3.73. The basis decreased by 442 [14] Market Analysis - Egg spot prices rebounded seasonally, with large - sized eggs rising more. However, high cold - storage egg inventory and high laying - hen存栏 may affect the price increase rhythm and limit the rebound height [14] Group 6: Apples Price Data - From July 23 - 29, 2025, the spot price of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade apples remained 7800. The 1 - month basis changed from 283 to 8, the 5 - month basis changed from 319 to - 46, and the 10 - month basis changed from 144 to - 108 [16][17] Market Analysis - In the new apple season, the yield in western regions may increase but with serious tree - felling, and Shandong may have a 20% reduction. The consumption is in the off - season, and the apparent inventory is the lowest in the past five years. Spot prices have risen significantly this year, and the impact of post - bag - removal conditions needs attention [17] Group 7: Pigs Price Data - From July 23 - 29, 2025, the spot prices in Henan Kaifeng, Hubei Xiangyang, Shandong Linyi, Anhui Hefei, and Jiangsu Nantong decreased, and the basis decreased by 225 [17] Market Analysis - Pig production capacity reduction is limited, and long - term supply pressure remains. Futures prices need spot verification. Short - term supply is sufficient, demand is average, and seasonal support exists. Attention should be paid to factors such as slaughter rhythm, weather, and policies [17]