尿素产业链周报-20250730

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View Policy expectations and exports are expected to provide short - term support to the urea market, but high supply and weak demand will limit the upside potential. The urea futures are likely to remain in a volatile pattern. Market participants should monitor production costs and the progress of autumn stockpiling [4][5]. 3. Summary by Category Fundamental Analysis - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is promoting the elimination of outdated production capacity in key industries. The proportion of fixed - bed processes in the urea industry has dropped to 10%, increasing the expectation of a marginal contraction in supply [4]. - Export orders are being continuously fulfilled. Enterprise inventories have decreased by 7.46% week - on - week to 895,500 tons, while port inventories have increased to 541,000 tons, alleviating domestic supply pressure [4]. - The top - dressing of northern corn is mostly completed, leading to weak agricultural demand. The incremental demand for autumn stockpiling of compound fertilizers is limited, and industrial demand is mainly for essential purchases [4]. - Although the daily production has slightly decreased to 196,100 tons, it is still higher year - on - year. With the addition of new production capacity, the pattern of loose supply remains unchanged [4]. Data Presentation The report presents a series of data related to the urea industry, including historical data on enterprise and port inventories, futures trading volume and open interest, spot prices, production costs, production profits, capacity utilization rates, and export prices, as well as data on related industries such as compound fertilizers and the power coal market [7][10][17][28][38][43]