建信期货生猪日报-20250730

Report Information - Report Title: Pig Daily Report [1] - Date: July 30, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The pig price may continue to face pressure in the short - term due to increased group sales at the end of July and weak demand in the off - season. However, long - term pig prices are expected to be positively affected by factors such as anti - involution initiatives, high - quality development of the pig industry, and strengthened environmental protection efforts [10] Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Futures Market: On the 28th, the main 2509 contract of live pigs opened higher, then fluctuated and declined, closing with a negative line. The highest was 14,350 yuan/ton, the lowest was 14,085 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 14,150 yuan/ton, down 0.49% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index decreased by 7,058 lots to 186,275 lots [9] - Spot Market: On the 29th, the average price of ternary live pigs in the country was 13.94 yuan/kg, down 0.1 yuan/kg from the previous day [9] - Demand Side: The utilization rate of pigsties is high, and secondary fattening is mainly in a wait - and - see state. Due to the hot weather, terminal demand is weak, and slaughterhouse orders are average. With the increase in enterprise sales at the end of the month, the slaughter rate and volume of slaughterhouses have slightly rebounded. On July 29th, the slaughter volume of sample slaughterhouses was 136,600 heads, 700 heads less than the previous day but 3,000 heads more than a week ago [10] - Supply Side: In July, the planned sales volume of sample enterprises was 23.88 million heads, a 1.19% month - on - month decrease from June. At the end of the month, the sales progress of the breeding side accelerated, the enthusiasm for sales increased, the sales weight decreased slightly, and the utilization rate of secondary fattening pigsties was high, with more secondary fattening pigs to be sold in the future [10] 2. Industry News - As of July 24th, the average profit per head of self - breeding and self - raising was 162 yuan/head, a weekly increase of 51 yuan/head; the average profit per head of purchasing piglets for breeding was - 63 yuan/head, a weekly increase of 63 yuan/head [11][13] 3. Data Overview - 15kg Piglet Price: In the week of July 24th, the average market sales price of 15kg piglets was 542 yuan/head, the same as the previous week [21] - National Pig Inventory: At the end of the second quarter of 2025, the national pig inventory was 424.47 million heads, a year - on - year increase of 2.2% and a month - on - month increase of 7.16 million heads (1.72%). From the second quarter of last year to the second quarter of this year, the month - on - month changes were 1.7%, 2.8%, 0.11%, - 2.37%, and 1.72% respectively [21] - Pig Slaughter Weight: In the week of July 24th, the average slaughter weight of national pigs was 128.48 kg, a decrease of 0.35 kg from the previous week (a month - on - month decrease of 0.27%) and an increase of 3.09 kg compared with the same period last year (a year - on - year increase of 2.46%) [21]