建信期货多晶硅日报-20250730

Report Information - Report Date: July 30, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [3] - Researchers: Li Jie, CFA (Crude Oil and Fuel Oil); Ren Junchi (PTA/MEG); Peng Haozhou (Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon); Peng Jinglin (Polyolefins); Liu Youran (Pulp) [3] Market Performance and Outlook Market Performance - The price of the main polysilicon contract showed a strong trend. The closing price of PS2509 was 50,805 yuan/ton, with a gain of 3.76%. The trading volume was 546,037 lots, and the open interest was 140,638 lots, with a net increase of 4,343 lots [4] Market Outlook - The weekly output of polysilicon in the third week of July was 24,400 tons, a week-on-week increase of 4.01%. The supply in July will increase to 100,000 - 110,000 tons, expected to meet the downstream demand of 50 - 55GW. The downstream cell production schedule is also around 50GW, and the supply and demand maintain a loose balance without inventory reduction drivers [4] - The photovoltaic installation data for June (14GW) confirmed a sharp decline in domestic demand after the rush installation ended. The monthly terminal demand will drop to around 45GW [4] - Overall, recent price fluctuations are not closely related to fundamentals. The spot price ranges from 45,000 to 49,000 yuan/ton, providing a rigid support. Policy sentiment fluctuates, and the market is mainly in a high - level oscillation [4] Market News - On July 29, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts was 3,070 lots, an increase of 20 lots (60 tons) compared with the previous trading day [5] - In June 2025, China's industrial silicon exports reached 68,300 tons, a month - on - month surge of 23% and a year - on - year increase of 12%, hitting a 18 - month high. Exports to Southeast Asia accounted for 58%, with Thailand (21,000 tons) and Malaysia (18,000 tons) being the main incremental markets, mainly used for local photovoltaic module production [5] - As of the end of June, the country's cumulative installed power generation capacity was 3.65 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 18.7%. Among them, the installed solar power generation capacity was 1.1 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 54.2%. The cumulative photovoltaic installation from January to June was 212.21GW, a year - on - year increase of 107.07%, but the domestic installation in June was only 14GW, showing a significant decline [5]