建信期货聚烯烃日报-20250730

Group 1: General Information - The report is a daily report on the polyolefin industry dated July 30, 2025 [1][2] Group 2: Research Team - The energy and chemical research team includes Peng Jinglin (polyolefins), Li Jie (crude oil and fuel oil), Ren Junchi (PTA, MEG), Peng Haozhou (urea, industrial silicon), Liu Youran (pulp), and Feng Zeren (glass and soda ash) [4] Group 3: Futures Market Quotes - Plastic 2601 opened at 7420 yuan/ton, closed at 7438 yuan/ton, with a high of 7446 yuan/ton, a low of 7408 yuan/ton, a rise of 15 yuan/ton (0.20%), a position of 162,615, and a position change of 4769 [5] - Plastic 2605 opened at 7396 yuan/ton, closed at 7425 yuan/ton, with a high of 7432 yuan/ton, a low of 7396 yuan/ton, a rise of 9 yuan/ton (0.12%), a position of 7457, and a position change of 121 [5] - Plastic 2509 opened at 7341 yuan/ton, closed at 7385 yuan/ton, with a high of 7396 yuan/ton, a low of 7341 yuan/ton, a rise of 18 yuan/ton (0.24%), a position of 343,620, and a position change of -2781 [5] - PP2601 opened at 7140 yuan/ton, closed at 7166 yuan/ton, with a high of 7172 yuan/ton, a low of 7140 yuan/ton, a rise of 11 yuan/ton (0.15%), a position of 180,054, and a position change of 14,101 [5] - PP2605 opened at 7148 yuan/ton, closed at 7158 yuan/ton, with a high of 7163 yuan/ton, a low of 7138 yuan/ton, a rise of 0 yuan/ton (0.00%), a position of 9836, and a position change of 255 [5] - PP2509 opened at 7139 yuan/ton, closed at 7160 yuan/ton, with a high of 7165 yuan/ton, a low of 7130 yuan/ton, a rise of 13 yuan/ton (0.18%), a position of 308,754, and a position change of -17,048 [5] Group 4: Market Review and Outlook - L2509 opened lower, fluctuated upwards during the session, and closed at 7385 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton (0.24%), with a trading volume of 240,000 lots and a position decrease of 2781 to 343,620 lots [6] - The PP main contract closed at 7160 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan/ton (0.18%), with a position decrease of 17,048 lots to 308,800 lots [6] - The futures market opened lower and fluctuated higher, while the spot market trading atmosphere was average. Traders' quotes had narrow fluctuations, and most delivery prices at the end of the month were stable. Downstream buyers replenished stocks on a need - to - basis [6] - The supply - demand pattern has not improved. The supply side shows an increasing trend as the planned maintenance capacity decreases and some previous units restart. The Ningbo Daxie Phase II project is planned to be put into production [6] - On the consumption side, the demand for agricultural films is at a seasonal low. The operating rates of pipes and plastic weaving are stable. Orders in the daily chemical and food sectors have slightly improved, but the production order days have extended, and downstream buyers have limited ability to accept high prices, leading to an increase in commercial inventories [6] - After the short - term market sentiment is digested, the market will face downward pressure. Attention should be paid to the introduction of specific plans for stable growth [6] Group 5: Industry News - On July 29, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 780,000 tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons (3.70%) from the previous working day. The inventory in the same period last year was 740,000 tons [7] - PE market prices had narrow fluctuations. The LLDPE prices in North China were 7180 - 7420 yuan/ton, in East China were 7270 - 7550 yuan/ton, and in South China were 7400 - 7650 yuan/ton [7] - The price of the Shandong propylene market rose slightly, closing at 6190 - 6250 yuan/ton as of 12:00, up 25 yuan/ton from the previous day. The rebound of international oil prices was positive for market sentiment. Enterprises' inventories were controllable, and their quotes mainly increased. Downstream buyers followed up as needed, and the actual transaction prices rose slightly [7] - The PP market was narrowly sorted. In the morning, the mainstream quotes for drawn PP in North China were 7000 - 7120 yuan/ton, in East China were 7070 - 7170 yuan/ton, and in South China were 7000 - 7200 yuan/ton [7] Group 6: Data Overview - The report includes figures such as L basis, PP basis, L - PP spread, crude oil futures main contract settlement price, two - oil inventories, and two - oil inventory year - on - year increase/decrease rate, with data sources from Wind and Zhuochuang Information [9][14][15]