贵金属日评-20250730

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Precious Metals Daily Review [1] - Date: July 30, 2025 [1] - Research Team: Macro Finance Team [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [2] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The international trade and monetary system restructuring will support the long - term bull market of gold, and Trump's reforms will support the medium - term bull market. However, high price and PE levels increase volatility, and in Q3, the impact of the US fiscal expansion bill and inflation on the Fed's rate - cut timing should be noted. [5] - It is recommended that investors maintain a long - term view and participate in trading with medium - low positions. For those with a short - term view, they can consider the "long gold, short silver" arbitrage opportunity after the silver's upward momentum fades. [4][5] Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Precious Metals Market Conditions and Outlook Intraday Market - The potential harm of the US - EU trade agreement to the European economy led to a more than 1% drop in the euro against the US dollar, pushing the US dollar index to around 99. The easing of international trade and the cease - fire on the Thai - Cambodian border reduced the safe - haven demand for precious metals. London gold fell to around $3300 per ounce, while silver with strong industrial attributes was strong due to Sino - US trade negotiation expectations. [4] - Trump's new policies boost the safe - haven demand for gold. London gold is expected to oscillate between $3120 - $3500 per ounce and then rise. [4] - This week, attention should be paid to Sino - US - Swedish economic and trade talks, central bank meetings, and important economic data. [4] Medium - term Market - Since late April, London gold has been oscillating between $3100 - $3500 per ounce. International trade cooling and the US fiscal expansion bill reduced the safe - haven and allocation demand for gold, but Trump's policies and geopolitical risks supported the price. [5] - In June, speculative funds flowed into the silver and platinum markets, and the gold - silver ratio has basically returned to the level before April. [5] - It is expected that London gold will continue to oscillate between $3120 - $3500 per ounce in the short term, waiting for the next upward breakthrough. [5] 2. Precious Metals Market - related Charts - The report provides multiple charts including Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, Shanghai futures index basis against Shanghai Gold T + D, gold and silver ETF holdings, gold - silver ratio, and the correlation between London gold and other assets. [7][9][11] 3. Main Macroeconomic Events/Data - Sino - US senior economic officials held over five - hour talks in Stockholm to extend the trade truce by three months. [17] - A cease - fire agreement between Thailand and Cambodia took effect at midnight on Monday, ending a deadly conflict. [17] - Trump set a new deadline for Russia to make progress in ending the Ukraine war. [17] - Trump expects to impose 15% - 20% tariffs on countries without trade agreements with the US and will send notice letters to about 200 countries. The US is considering changing its Myanmar policy regarding rare - earth resources. The EU and the US will establish a metal alliance as part of the trade agreement. [18]