建信期货国债日报-20250730

Group 1: Report Overview - Industry: Treasury Bonds [1] - Date: July 30, 2025 [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The market risk appetite has significantly increased since mid - July, with the stock market strengthening and commodity prices warming up, which has put pressure on the bond market. However, the bond market has not experienced a panic - driven decline. The long - term bullish environment for the bond market remains unchanged, and the decline in bond - allocation costs in the second half of the year may further expand the bond market space [11][12] Group 3: Market Conditions Market Quotes - On July 29, the afternoon recovery of the stock market and commodities suppressed the bond market, causing the decline of treasury bond futures to widen in the afternoon. The yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds all rose, with an increase of about 3bp. By 16:30, the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond 250011 was reported at 1.7475%, up 3.25bp [8][9] Transaction Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Volume | Open Interest | Position Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2509 | 117.870 | - 0.930 | - 0.78 | 140838 | 120771 | 488 | | TL2512 | 117.490 | - 1.000 | - 0.84 | 20938 | 39248 | 3664 | |... |... |... |... |... |... |... | [6] Capital Market - At the end of the month, the central bank made continuous net injections, and the inter - bank capital market loosened. There were 2148 billion yuan of reverse repurchases due, and the central bank conducted 4492 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, achieving a net injection of 2344 billion yuan. Short - term capital interest rates declined across the board, while medium - and long - term capital remained stable [10] Group 4: Industry News - On July 28, local time, the China - US economic and trade teams held economic and trade talks in Stockholm, Sweden. The National Conference on the Heads of Industry and Information Technology Departments in Beijing deployed eight key tasks for the second half of the year. The Market Supervision and Development Planning Symposium in Beijing put forward requirements for market supervision in the "15th Five - Year Plan" period. The CF40's macro - policy quarterly report for Q2 2025 pointed out that further counter - cyclical policies are needed to achieve the annual economic growth target [13][14] Group 5: Data Overview - The data overview includes treasury bond futures market (such as main contract spreads and trends), money market (such as SHIBOR and inter - bank repurchase rates), and derivatives market (such as interest - rate swap curves) [15][23][33]