建信期货工业硅日报-20250730

Report Date - The report is dated July 30, 2025 [2] 2. Research Team - The Energy and Chemical Research Team includes researchers such as Li Jie (Crude Oil and Fuel Oil), Ren Junchi (PTA/MEG), Peng Haozhou (Industrial Silicon/Polycrystalline Silicon), Peng Jinglin (Polyolefins), and Liu Youran (Pulp) [3] 3. Market Performance and Outlook Market Performance - The main contract price of industrial silicon futures showed a strong and volatile trend. The closing price of Si2509 was 9,350 yuan/ton, with a gain of 2.35%. The trading volume was 654,844 lots, and the open interest was 276,734 lots, a net decrease of 2,334 lots [4] - The spot price of industrial silicon stabilized. The price of Inner Mongolia 553 was 9,550 yuan/ton, Sichuan 553 was 9,050 yuan/ton; Inner Mongolia 421 was 9,900 yuan/ton, Xinjiang 421 was 9,900 yuan/ton, and Sichuan 421 was 10,500 yuan/ton [4] Market Outlook - The fundamentals have not changed significantly recently. The resumption of production in the southwest offset the production cuts of large factories in Xinjiang. The production in the fourth week of July increased to 75,200 tons. Photovoltaic demand increased slightly due to the resumption of production of polysilicon enterprises, but the safety accident in the silicone industry forced overall self - inspections, and the supply - demand relationship did not improve significantly [4] - Since the end of June, the first - stage rebound of industrial silicon's futures and spot prices was mainly affected by the news of production cuts by Xinjiang Hesheng, and the second stage was mainly driven by the "anti - involution" competition policy. Generally, the recent price fluctuations have little to do with the fundamentals. Currently, the spot price (553) range is still between 9,000 - 9,500 yuan/ton, and the increase in warehouse receipts also occurred at high prices. Overall, the price will mainly fluctuate widely [4] 4. Market News - On July 29, the number of futures warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 50,082 lots, a net decrease of 31 lots from the previous trading day [5] - The export volume of industrial silicon in June was 68,323 tons. The cumulative export volume from January to June was 338,900 tons, with an average monthly export of 56,500 tons [5] - On July 23, the National Energy Administration released the national power industry statistics for January - June. As of the end of June, the cumulative installed power generation capacity nationwide was 3.65 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 18.7%. Among them, the installed capacity of solar power generation was 1.1 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 54.2%; the installed capacity of wind power was 570 million kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 22.7%. From January to June, the cumulative average utilization hours of national power generation equipment were 1,504 hours, a decrease of 162 hours compared with the same period last year. In June, the newly installed photovoltaic capacity was only 14.36GW, a year - on - year decrease of 38% and a month - on - month decrease of 85% [5]