甲醇聚烯烃早报-20250730

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - Methanol: High imports are materializing, inventory accumulation has begun, and the futures price is undervalued. It's in a period of bearish factor realization. With unstable macro - environment and weak methanol prices in Europe and the US, the unilateral direction is hard to determine. Given the low valuation, it's advisable to consider long - positions at low prices [2]. - Polyethylene: The overall inventory is neutral. The 09 basis is around - 150 in North China and - 100 in East China. Import profit is around - 100 with no further increase. Non - standard HD injection prices are stable, while LD is weakening. Domestic linear production will increase in August. Attention should be paid to LL - HD conversion and new plant commissioning [6]. - Polypropylene: Upstream inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina is increasing, while mid - stream inventory is decreasing. The basis is - 60, and non - standard price spreads are neutral. Export performance is good this year. Supply is expected to increase slightly in June. In an over - capacity context, the 09 contract is under moderate to excessive pressure, which can be mitigated by strong exports or more PDH plant maintenance [6]. - PVC: The basis remains at 09 - 150, and downstream开工 is seasonally weak. Mid - and upstream inventory de - stocking is slowing down. Attention should be paid to new plant commissioning and export sustainability in July - August. Current static inventory contradictions are accumulating slowly, and cost is stabilizing. Focus on exports, coal prices, real - estate sales, terminal orders, and开工 [6]. 3. Summary by Product Methanol - Price Data: From July 23 to July 29, 2025, the power coal futures price remained at 801. The Jiangsu spot price decreased from 2417 to 2395, and the Northwest discounted to the futures price decreased from 2638 to 2625. The import profit remained unchanged, and the main contract basis decreased from - 12 to - 18 [2]. Polyethylene - Price Data: From July 23 to July 29, 2025, Northeast Asian ethylene price remained at 820. The North China LL price remained at 7230, and the main contract futures price increased from 7288 to 7385. The basis decreased from - 120 to - 160 [6]. Polypropylene - Price Data: From July 23 to July 29, 2025, Shandong propylene price decreased from 6300 to 6190. The East China PP price decreased from 7090 to 7055, and the main contract futures price increased from 7096 to 7160. The basis decreased from - 50 to - 90 [6]. PVC - Price Data: From July 23 to July 29, 2025, Northwest calcium carbide price decreased from 2250 to 2200, and Shandong caustic soda price increased from 842 to 862. The calcium carbide - based East China PVC price decreased from 5070 to 5030, and the basis (high - end delivery product) remained at - 80 [6].