大越期货沪铜早报-20250730

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of copper are neutral as smelting enterprises are reducing production, the scrap copper policy has been relaxed, and the manufacturing PMI in June was 49.5%, indicating stable manufacturing sentiment. The basis shows a premium over futures, also neutral. Copper inventories increased on July 29, and the SHFE copper inventory decreased last week, which is neutral. The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average with the average moving downward, suggesting a bearish trend. The main positions are net long but the long positions are decreasing, showing a bullish tendency. Considering factors such as the slowdown of Fed rate - cuts, rising inventories, geopolitical disturbances, and weak consumption in the off - season, copper prices are expected to fluctuate and adjust [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - Fundamentals: Smelting enterprises cut production, scrap copper policy is relaxed, June manufacturing PMI is 49.5% (unchanged from last month), manufacturing sentiment is stable, neutral [3]. - Basis: Spot price is 78985, basis is 145, premium over futures, neutral [3]. - Inventory: On July 29, copper inventory increased by 225 to 127625 tons, SHFE copper inventory decreased by 11133 tons to 74423 tons last week, neutral [3]. - Disk: Closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, 20 - day moving average is moving downward, bearish [3]. - Main positions: Main net positions are long but long positions are decreasing, bullish [3]. - Expectation: Fed rate - cuts slow down, inventories rise, geopolitical disturbances remain, off - season consumption is under pressure, copper prices will fluctuate and adjust [3]. Recent利多利空Analysis -利多: Domestic policy easing [4]. -利空: Trade war escalation [4]. Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, it will be in a tight balance [21]. - China's annual supply - demand balance table shows different production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance data from 2018 - 2024 [23].