大越期货天胶早报-20250730

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of natural rubber are neutral, with increasing supply, strong foreign spot prices, rising domestic inventories, and high tire operating rates. The basis is bearish, the inventory situation is mixed, the market is bullish on the disk, the main position is bearish, and short - term trading is dominated by market sentiment [4]. Summary by Directory Daily Prompt - The fundamentals of natural rubber are neutral, with supply starting to increase, strong foreign spot prices, increasing domestic inventories, and high tire operating rates. The basis is - 110 with a spot price of 14900, showing a bearish signal. The inventory situation is mixed, with the SHFE inventory decreasing week - on - week and year - on - year, while the Qingdao area inventory increasing week - on - week and year - on - year. The market is bullish on the disk as the price is running above the 20 - day line. The main position is net short with an increase in short positions, showing a bearish signal. Short - term trading is dominated by market sentiment [4]. Fundamental Data - Supply: Supply is starting to increase [4]. - Spot Price: The spot price of 2023 full - latex (non - deliverable) decreased on July 29. The US dollar quote in Qingdao Free Trade Zone is also involved, and the spot price is relatively resistant to decline [6][8]. - Inventory: The SHFE inventory has been continuously decreasing recently, while the Qingdao area inventory has increased slightly [14][17]. - Downstream Consumption: Downstream consumption is at a high level, with seasonal rebounds in automobile production and sales and the tire production reaching a new high in the same period, but the tire industry's exports have declined [23][26][29]. - Import: Import volume has seasonally declined [20]. Basis - The basis weakened on July 29, with a spot price of 14900 and a basis of - 110, showing a bearish signal [4][35]. Multi - empty Factors - Likely Positive Factors: High downstream consumption, resistant spot prices, and domestic anti - involution [6]. - Likely Negative Factors: Increasing supply and the non - seasonal destocking in Qingdao area [6].