碳酸锂期货日报-20250730

Report Information - Report Title: Carbonate Lithium Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: July 30, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The carbonate lithium futures continued to decline, with the main contract hitting a low of 68,600 during the session. After the first trading session, there was an obvious rebound in the anti - involution theme, and the decline of carbonate lithium narrowed. The spot market was resistant to decline, with the price of electric carbon dropping by 750 to 73,150. The spot was at a premium to the futures, and upstream lithium salt enterprises still showed strong price - holding willingness. There was a significant divergence in the psychological price expectations between upstream and downstream enterprises. The decline of Australian ore was greater than that of spot electric carbon, while the price of lithium mica ore was resistant to decline. The production profit of salt plants using purchased lithium spodumene expanded, while the production loss of salt plants using purchased lithium mica widened. The supply of carbonate lithium was expected to remain at a high level in the short term, and the fundamentals were difficult to support the price. The futures were expected to continue to hype the anti - involution logic, and the short - term support level of the futures was around 68,000 [11]. Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Carbonate lithium futures dropped, and the decline narrowed after a rebound. The spot market was more resistant to decline, with the electric carbon price dropping by 750 to 73,150. Upstream enterprises had a strong price - holding intention, with a psychological expectation price range of 73,000 - 74,000 yuan, while downstream enterprises preferred to purchase through the futures premium and discount point - price model. Australian ore prices dropped by 65 to 780 US dollars per ton, expanding the production profit of spodumene - using salt plants to 2,489 yuan per ton. High - grade lithium mica prices dropped by 30 to 1,775 yuan per ton, widening the production loss of lithium - mica - using salt plants to 6,968 yuan per ton. The production volume of carbonate lithium from spodumene may further increase, while the production volume from lithium mica depends on the reduction and shutdown of relevant mines in Jiangxi. The short - term supply is expected to remain high, and the futures may continue to hype the anti - involution logic, with short - term support at around 68,000 [11]. 2. Industry News - A study by the University of Hong Kong found that aluminum impurities in the lithium - ion battery recycling process can form super - stable aluminum - oxygen bonds in the cathode crystals, trapping key metals and reducing their leachability, which challenges traditional recycling practices and emphasizes the need to redesign specific solvent processes [14]. - Two major new - energy companies achieved a breakthrough in recycling batteries by producing battery - grade lithium hydroxide from waste electric vehicle batteries. Their innovative process can extract lithium from mixed NMC and LFP black powder on one production line, improving versatility and reducing costs. The produced lithium hydroxide meets the purity standards of cathode manufacturers, which is in line with the EU battery regulations' goals of 50% lithium recovery rate by 2027 and 80% by 2031 [15].