沪锌期货早报-20250730

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The previous trading day saw the Shanghai zinc futures show a volatile trend, closing with a negative line, and both long and short positions reduced their holdings, with the long - positions decreasing more significantly. The market is expected to experience short - term volatile consolidation. Technically, the price is above the long - term moving average, with strong support from the moving average. The short - term KDJ indicator is declining while operating in the strong zone, and the trend indicator shows that the long - side strength is decreasing and the short - side strength is increasing, with the long - side advantage narrowing. The operation suggestion for Shanghai zinc ZN2509 is volatile consolidation [20]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Zinc Futures Market Conditions on July 29 - The trading volume of zinc futures on July 29 was 197,911 lots, with a total trading value of 2,242,455.18. The total open interest was 217,976 lots, a decrease of 6,419 lots compared to the previous day [3]. 3.2 Domestic Spot Market Conditions on July 29 - Zinc concentrate in Linzhou was priced at 17,260 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan/ton; zinc ingot in a certain area was 22,650 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan/ton; galvanized sheet in China was 4,087 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan/ton; galvanized pipe in China was 4,467 yuan/ton, an increase of 4 yuan/ton; zinc alloy in Ningbo was 23,120 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan/ton; zinc powder in Changsha was 27,590 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70 yuan/ton; zinc oxide in Taizhou was 21,000 yuan/ton, with no change; and secondary zinc oxide outside the forest area was 7,694 yuan/ton, with no change [4]. 3.3 National Main Market Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics (July 17 - July 28, 2025) - As of July 28, the total social inventory of zinc ingots in major Chinese markets was 8.36 million tons, an increase of 0.81 million tons compared to July 21 and an increase of 0.28 million tons compared to July 24 [5]. 3.4 Zinc Warehouse Receipt Report on July 29 - The total zinc warehouse receipts on July 29 were 15,307 tons, an increase of 1,540 tons compared to the previous day, mainly due to the increase in Tianjin's warehouse receipts [6]. 3.5 LME Zinc Inventory Distribution and Statistics on July 29 - The LME zinc inventory on July 29 was 112,150 tons, a decrease of 3,350 tons compared to the previous day. The registered warehouse receipts were 57,600 tons, and the cancelled warehouse receipts were 54,550 tons, with a cancellation ratio of 48.64% [7]. 3.6 National Main City Zinc Concentrate Price Summary on July 29 - The price of 50% grade zinc concentrate in most regions was around 17,260 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 60 yuan/ton. Only in some areas like Hechi and Liangshanzhou, the prices were 17,360 yuan/ton and 17,460 yuan/ton respectively [9]. 3.7 National Market Zinc Ingot Smelter Price Quotes on July 29 - The price of 0 zinc ingot (≥99.995%) from different smelters ranged from 22,360 yuan/ton to 26,770 yuan/ton, all with a decrease of 80 yuan/ton [13]. 3.8 Domestic Refined Zinc Production in June 2025 - In June 2025, the actual production of refined zinc was 47.18 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.67% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.36%. The production was 2.63% higher than the planned value, with a capacity utilization rate of 87.10%. The planned production for July is 47.03 million tons [15]. 3.9 Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee Quotes on July 29 - The domestic zinc concentrate processing fee for 50% grade ranged from 3,400 to 4,000 yuan/metal ton, and the import processing fee for 48% grade was 60 - 80 dollars/kiloton [17]. 3.10 Shanghai Futures Exchange Member Zinc Trading and Position Ranking on July 29 - In terms of trading volume, Guotai Junan ranked first with 44,773 lots, a decrease of 18,362 lots compared to the previous day. In terms of long positions, CITIC Futures ranked first with 16,989 lots, a decrease of 4,537 lots. In terms of short positions, CITIC Futures also ranked first with 11,341 lots, a decrease of 541 lots [18]. 3.11 Fundamental Analysis of Shanghai Zinc - The global zinc plate production in April 2025 was 115.3 million tons, with a consumption of 113.02 million tons, resulting in a supply surplus of 2.27 million tons. From January to April, the production was 445.14 million tons, and the consumption was 450.79 million tons, with a supply shortage of 5.65 million tons. The global zinc ore production from January to April was 404.06 million tons, which is a bullish factor. The basis was - 5, indicating a neutral situation. The LME zinc inventory decreased by 3,350 tons to 112,150 tons on July 29, and the SHFE zinc warehouse receipts increased by 1,540 tons to 15,307 tons, also a neutral situation. The main positions were net short, and the short positions increased, which is a bearish factor [2].