大越期货聚烯烃早报-20250730

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to show a volatile trend today. The market is influenced by cost support and macro - policy promotion on the positive side, while weak demand is a negative factor [4][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs LLDPE Overview - Fundamentals: In June, the PMI was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, remaining in the contraction range for three consecutive months. The Caixin PMI in June was 50.4, 2.1 percentage points higher than in May and the same as in April, returning above the critical point. On July 18, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced a plan to promote stable growth in key industries including the petrochemical industry. The downstream demand is weak overall, with the agricultural film in the off - season and the packaging film showing slight improvement. The current LLDPE delivery product spot price is 7400 (+30), and the fundamentals are generally neutral [4]. - Basis: The basis of the LLDPE 2509 contract is 15, with a premium - discount ratio of 0.2%, which is neutral [4]. - Inventory: The comprehensive PE inventory is 56.3 tons (-2.4), which is bearish [4]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is flat, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [4]. - Main Position: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, and the short position is increasing, which is bearish [4]. - Expectation: The LLDPE main contract has been fluctuating recently. Driven by the macro - stable growth plan, with the off - season of agricultural film demand and weak downstream demand, and the industrial inventory being neutral, it is expected that the PE will fluctuate today [4]. - Likely Factors: Cost support and macro - policy promotion are positive factors, while weak demand is a negative factor. The main logic is based on cost - demand and domestic macro - policy promotion [6]. PP Overview - Fundamentals: Similar to LLDPE in terms of macro data. The downstream demand is in the off - season, affected by high summer temperatures and heavy rainfall, the demand for pipes, plastic weaving, etc., is weak. The current PP delivery product spot price is 7150 (-0), and the fundamentals are generally neutral [7]. - Basis: The basis of the PP 2509 contract is - 10, with a premium - discount ratio of - 0.1%, which is neutral [7]. - Inventory: The comprehensive PP inventory is 58.1 tons (+1.5), which is bearish [7]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is flat, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [7]. - Main Position: The net position of the PP main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [7]. - Expectation: The PP main contract has been fluctuating recently. Driven by the macro - stable growth plan, with weak downstream demand for pipes, plastic weaving, etc., and the industrial inventory being neutral, it is expected that the PP will fluctuate today [7]. - Likely Factors: Cost support and macro - policy promotion are positive factors, while weak demand is a negative factor. The main logic is based on cost - demand and domestic macro - policy promotion [8]. Spot, Futures, and Inventory Data - LLDPE: The spot delivery product price is 7400 (+30), the 09 contract price is 7385 (+50), the basis is 15 (-20), the warehouse receipt is 5816 (0), and the PE comprehensive inventory is 56.3 tons [9]. - PP: The spot delivery product price is 7150 (0), the 09 contract price is 7160 (+30), the basis is - 10 (-30), the warehouse receipt is 12895 (+200), and the PP comprehensive inventory is 58.1 tons [9]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - Polyethylene: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, production, net import volume, and apparent consumption generally showed an upward trend, with fluctuations in the growth rate. For example, the production capacity growth rate in 2020 was 17.8%, and the consumption growth rate in 2019 was 14.3% [14]. - Polypropylene: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, production, net import volume, and apparent consumption also showed an upward trend with fluctuations. For example, the production capacity growth rate in 2020 was 15.5%, and the consumption growth rate in 2020 was 17.9% [16].